Recent Met Office forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate the lowest temperature in London on September 22 will reach 15°C overnight under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, consistent with current surface observations near 17–19°C at dusk and expected radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for late September, where minimums typically range 12–16°C amid moderating Atlantic influences. Trader consensus at 98% implied probability reflects the tight clustering of official guidance around this threshold, with minimal divergence in short-range models. A stronger high-pressure system or clearer conditions could push readings lower toward 13°C, while increased cloud cover or a warmer advection pattern might hold the minimum at 16°C or above.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 22?
Lowest temperature in London on September 22?
15°C 99.4%
14°C 2%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
$9,664 Vol.
$9,664 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
99%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 99.4%
14°C 2%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
$9,664 Vol.
$9,664 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
10°C or below
$475 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$260 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$904 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,889 Vol.
2%
15°C
$3,881 Vol.
99%
16°C
$1,670 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$481 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$54 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate the lowest temperature in London on September 22 will reach 15°C overnight under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, consistent with current surface observations near 17–19°C at dusk and expected radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for late September, where minimums typically range 12–16°C amid moderating Atlantic influences. Trader consensus at 98% implied probability reflects the tight clustering of official guidance around this threshold, with minimal divergence in short-range models. A stronger high-pressure system or clearer conditions could push readings lower toward 13°C, while increased cloud cover or a warmer advection pattern might hold the minimum at 16°C or above.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$9,664End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate the lowest temperature in London on September 22 will reach 15°C overnight under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, consistent with current surface observations near 17–19°C at dusk and expected radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for late September, where minimums typically range 12–16°C amid moderating Atlantic influences. Trader consensus at 98% implied probability reflects the tight clustering of official guidance around this threshold, with minimal divergence in short-range models. A stronger high-pressure system or clearer conditions could push readings lower toward 13°C, while increased cloud cover or a warmer advection pattern might hold the minimum at 16°C or above.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,664End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate the lowest temperature in London on September 22 will reach 15°C overnight under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, consistent with current surface observations near 17–19°C at dusk and expected radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for late September, where minimums typically range 12–16°C amid moderating Atlantic influences. Trader consensus at 98% implied probability reflects the tight clustering of official guidance around this threshold, with minimal divergence in short-range models. A stronger high-pressure system or clearer conditions could push readings lower toward 13°C, while increased cloud cover or a warmer advection pattern might hold the minimum at 16°C or above.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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