Recent forecasts from the Met Office and UKMO models indicate a high-pressure system bringing mostly clear to partly cloudy skies over London on September 23, 2026, with light winds favoring radiative cooling overnight. This setup supports an early-morning minimum near 11–13 °C before daytime highs reach 23–24 °C, yet ensemble spreads and slight variations in cloud cover or wind speed introduce uncertainty that centers trader-implied probabilities on 15–16 °C. Historical September minima in the region average around 10–12 °C under similar anticyclonic conditions, while the absence of significant frontal activity or Atlantic moisture keeps colder outliers below 14 °C at low probability. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of the 22nd will refine the final minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 23?
Lowest temperature in London on September 23?
16°C 50%
15°C 26%
17°C 15%
14°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
5%
14°C
8%
15°C
26%
16°C
50%
17°C
15%
18°C
7%
19°C or higher
<1%
16°C 50%
15°C 26%
17°C 15%
14°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
9°C or below
$19 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$0 Vol.
1%
11°C
$55 Vol.
1%
12°C
$386 Vol.
2%
13°C
$306 Vol.
5%
14°C
$606 Vol.
8%
15°C
$775 Vol.
26%
16°C
$709 Vol.
50%
17°C
$451 Vol.
15%
18°C
$318 Vol.
7%
19°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Met Office and UKMO models indicate a high-pressure system bringing mostly clear to partly cloudy skies over London on September 23, 2026, with light winds favoring radiative cooling overnight. This setup supports an early-morning minimum near 11–13 °C before daytime highs reach 23–24 °C, yet ensemble spreads and slight variations in cloud cover or wind speed introduce uncertainty that centers trader-implied probabilities on 15–16 °C. Historical September minima in the region average around 10–12 °C under similar anticyclonic conditions, while the absence of significant frontal activity or Atlantic moisture keeps colder outliers below 14 °C at low probability. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of the 22nd will refine the final minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,640End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Met Office and UKMO models indicate a high-pressure system bringing mostly clear to partly cloudy skies over London on September 23, 2026, with light winds favoring radiative cooling overnight. This setup supports an early-morning minimum near 11–13 °C before daytime highs reach 23–24 °C, yet ensemble spreads and slight variations in cloud cover or wind speed introduce uncertainty that centers trader-implied probabilities on 15–16 °C. Historical September minima in the region average around 10–12 °C under similar anticyclonic conditions, while the absence of significant frontal activity or Atlantic moisture keeps colder outliers below 14 °C at low probability. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of the 22nd will refine the final minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,640End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Met Office and UKMO models indicate a high-pressure system bringing mostly clear to partly cloudy skies over London on September 23, 2026, with light winds favoring radiative cooling overnight. This setup supports an early-morning minimum near 11–13 °C before daytime highs reach 23–24 °C, yet ensemble spreads and slight variations in cloud cover or wind speed introduce uncertainty that centers trader-implied probabilities on 15–16 °C. Historical September minima in the region average around 10–12 °C under similar anticyclonic conditions, while the absence of significant frontal activity or Atlantic moisture keeps colder outliers below 14 °C at low probability. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of the 22nd will refine the final minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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