Latest ensemble forecasts from major models position a minimum temperature near 21–25°C as the most probable outcome for Istanbul on August 26, driven by persistent high pressure, northeasterly flow off the Black Sea, and clear skies that limit overnight radiative cooling. Historical climatology shows late-August overnight lows averaging 20–22°C, with current runs indicating slightly above-average values due to reduced marine influence and daytime heat retention. Model spread creates the observed market clustering around these thresholds, while probabilities below 18°C or above 26°C remain minimal given stable synoptic conditions and no incoming fronts. Updated model guidance expected overnight will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 26?
25°C 87%
18°C 50%
19°C 50%
21°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
17°C or below
2%
18°C
50%
19°C
50%
20°C
1%
21°C
27%
22°C
27%
23°C
27%
24°C
26%
25°C
87%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
1%
25°C 87%
18°C 50%
19°C 50%
21°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
17°C or below
$70 Vol.
2%
18°C
$15 Vol.
50%
19°C
$15 Vol.
50%
20°C
$15 Vol.
1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
27%
24°C
$0 Vol.
26%
25°C
$120 Vol.
87%
26°C
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$135 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models position a minimum temperature near 21–25°C as the most probable outcome for Istanbul on August 26, driven by persistent high pressure, northeasterly flow off the Black Sea, and clear skies that limit overnight radiative cooling. Historical climatology shows late-August overnight lows averaging 20–22°C, with current runs indicating slightly above-average values due to reduced marine influence and daytime heat retention. Model spread creates the observed market clustering around these thresholds, while probabilities below 18°C or above 26°C remain minimal given stable synoptic conditions and no incoming fronts. Updated model guidance expected overnight will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$370End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models position a minimum temperature near 21–25°C as the most probable outcome for Istanbul on August 26, driven by persistent high pressure, northeasterly flow off the Black Sea, and clear skies that limit overnight radiative cooling. Historical climatology shows late-August overnight lows averaging 20–22°C, with current runs indicating slightly above-average values due to reduced marine influence and daytime heat retention. Model spread creates the observed market clustering around these thresholds, while probabilities below 18°C or above 26°C remain minimal given stable synoptic conditions and no incoming fronts. Updated model guidance expected overnight will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$370End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from major models position a minimum temperature near 21–25°C as the most probable outcome for Istanbul on August 26, driven by persistent high pressure, northeasterly flow off the Black Sea, and clear skies that limit overnight radiative cooling. Historical climatology shows late-August overnight lows averaging 20–22°C, with current runs indicating slightly above-average values due to reduced marine influence and daytime heat retention. Model spread creates the observed market clustering around these thresholds, while probabilities below 18°C or above 26°C remain minimal given stable synoptic conditions and no incoming fronts. Updated model guidance expected overnight will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions