**Diverging short-range forecast models create near-even odds between mild overnight minima near 20–23°C and cooler readings at or below 18°C for Istanbul on August 25.** Persistent northeasterly flow and mostly clear skies favor radiative cooling after daytime highs of 28–30°C, but slight differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point depression, and any thin high-cloud timing produce 3–5°C spreads across GFS, ECMWF, and regional ensembles. With resolution less than 48 hours away, traders weigh the latest model runs against historical August nocturnal minima around 20–22°C, keeping probabilities balanced as fresh guidance arrives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 25?
18°C or below 92%
28°C or higher 92%
27°C 89%
26°C 52%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
18°C or below
92%
19°C
27%
20°C
45%
21°C
27%
22°C
27%
23°C
27%
24°C
27%
25°C
27%
26°C
52%
27°C
89%
28°C or higher
92%
18°C or below 92%
28°C or higher 92%
27°C 89%
26°C 52%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
18°C or below
$5 Vol.
92%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
45%
21°C
$0 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
27%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$4 Vol.
27%
26°C
$5 Vol.
52%
27°C
$5 Vol.
89%
28°C or higher
$5 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Diverging short-range forecast models create near-even odds between mild overnight minima near 20–23°C and cooler readings at or below 18°C for Istanbul on August 25.** Persistent northeasterly flow and mostly clear skies favor radiative cooling after daytime highs of 28–30°C, but slight differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point depression, and any thin high-cloud timing produce 3–5°C spreads across GFS, ECMWF, and regional ensembles. With resolution less than 48 hours away, traders weigh the latest model runs against historical August nocturnal minima around 20–22°C, keeping probabilities balanced as fresh guidance arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$24End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Diverging short-range forecast models create near-even odds between mild overnight minima near 20–23°C and cooler readings at or below 18°C for Istanbul on August 25.** Persistent northeasterly flow and mostly clear skies favor radiative cooling after daytime highs of 28–30°C, but slight differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point depression, and any thin high-cloud timing produce 3–5°C spreads across GFS, ECMWF, and regional ensembles. With resolution less than 48 hours away, traders weigh the latest model runs against historical August nocturnal minima around 20–22°C, keeping probabilities balanced as fresh guidance arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Diverging short-range forecast models create near-even odds between mild overnight minima near 20–23°C and cooler readings at or below 18°C for Istanbul on August 25.** Persistent northeasterly flow and mostly clear skies favor radiative cooling after daytime highs of 28–30°C, but slight differences in boundary-layer mixing, dew-point depression, and any thin high-cloud timing produce 3–5°C spreads across GFS, ECMWF, and regional ensembles. With resolution less than 48 hours away, traders weigh the latest model runs against historical August nocturnal minima around 20–22°C, keeping probabilities balanced as fresh guidance arrives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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