**Persistent warm conditions and limited overnight cooling are positioning the 78–79°F range as the leading outcome for Houston’s minimum temperature on September 23, 2026.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple meteorological services project a daytime high near 96°F under mostly sunny skies, followed by a low in the upper 70s (around 78–82°F) overnight as light northeast-to-southeast winds and partly cloudy conditions limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market-implied odds, where 78–79°F holds the highest probability at 48.5%, followed by nearby bins at 80–81°F (25.5%) and 76–77°F (20.5%). September climatology shows an average low near 71°F for the date, but 2026 has featured above-normal warmth, with recent days recording minima in the mid-to-upper 70s amid a stable, humid air mass. No strong cold fronts or significant weather systems are expected to arrive in time to alter the overnight trajectory, keeping probabilities concentrated in the upper 70s while lower bins (below 76°F) remain less favored and higher thresholds like 90°F+ reflect minimal chance of stalled cooling. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening will provide the final confirmation for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 23?
90°F or higher 53%
78-79°F 49%
72-73°F 39%
74-75°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
39%
74-75°F
39%
76-77°F
21%
78-79°F
49%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
39%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
53%
90°F or higher 53%
78-79°F 49%
72-73°F 39%
74-75°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
71°F or below
$215 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
39%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
39%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
21%
78-79°F
$44 Vol.
49%
80-81°F
$18 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$8 Vol.
39%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
18%
86-87°F
$100 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$175 Vol.
1%
90°F or higher
$100 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent warm conditions and limited overnight cooling are positioning the 78–79°F range as the leading outcome for Houston’s minimum temperature on September 23, 2026.**
Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple meteorological services project a daytime high near 96°F under mostly sunny skies, followed by a low in the upper 70s (around 78–82°F) overnight as light northeast-to-southeast winds and partly cloudy conditions limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market-implied odds, where 78–79°F holds the highest probability at 48.5%, followed by nearby bins at 80–81°F (25.5%) and 76–77°F (20.5%).
September climatology shows an average low near 71°F for the date, but 2026 has featured above-normal warmth, with recent days recording minima in the mid-to-upper 70s amid a stable, humid air mass. No strong cold fronts or significant weather systems are expected to arrive in time to alter the overnight trajectory, keeping probabilities concentrated in the upper 70s while lower bins (below 76°F) remain less favored and higher thresholds like 90°F+ reflect minimal chance of stalled cooling. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening will provide the final confirmation for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$660End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent warm conditions and limited overnight cooling are positioning the 78–79°F range as the leading outcome for Houston’s minimum temperature on September 23, 2026.**
Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple meteorological services project a daytime high near 96°F under mostly sunny skies, followed by a low in the upper 70s (around 78–82°F) overnight as light northeast-to-southeast winds and partly cloudy conditions limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market-implied odds, where 78–79°F holds the highest probability at 48.5%, followed by nearby bins at 80–81°F (25.5%) and 76–77°F (20.5%).
September climatology shows an average low near 71°F for the date, but 2026 has featured above-normal warmth, with recent days recording minima in the mid-to-upper 70s amid a stable, humid air mass. No strong cold fronts or significant weather systems are expected to arrive in time to alter the overnight trajectory, keeping probabilities concentrated in the upper 70s while lower bins (below 76°F) remain less favored and higher thresholds like 90°F+ reflect minimal chance of stalled cooling. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening will provide the final confirmation for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$660End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent warm conditions and limited overnight cooling are positioning the 78–79°F range as the leading outcome for Houston’s minimum temperature on September 23, 2026.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple meteorological services project a daytime high near 96°F under mostly sunny skies, followed by a low in the upper 70s (around 78–82°F) overnight as light northeast-to-southeast winds and partly cloudy conditions limit radiational cooling. This aligns with the market-implied odds, where 78–79°F holds the highest probability at 48.5%, followed by nearby bins at 80–81°F (25.5%) and 76–77°F (20.5%). September climatology shows an average low near 71°F for the date, but 2026 has featured above-normal warmth, with recent days recording minima in the mid-to-upper 70s amid a stable, humid air mass. No strong cold fronts or significant weather systems are expected to arrive in time to alter the overnight trajectory, keeping probabilities concentrated in the upper 70s while lower bins (below 76°F) remain less favored and higher thresholds like 90°F+ reflect minimal chance of stalled cooling. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening will provide the final confirmation for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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