Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Austin show overnight lows stabilizing in the mid-70s°F on September 23, driven by persistent warm advection, high dew points near 70°F, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds. Model consensus points to a minimum near 75–77°F, though scattered afternoon convection and subtle steering variations introduce spread that keeps the 67°F-or-below and 86°F-or-higher bins tied at 41.5% each. Traders weigh historical September climatology against current guidance, noting that even modest increases in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could shift the realized low by several degrees within the 72–77°F resolution bands. Updated model runs tonight will clarify whether the market-implied odds converge on the central bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 23?
67°F or below 83%
86°F or higher 83%
74-75°F 40%
76-77°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
67°F or below
83%
68-69°F
22%
70-71°F
22%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
40%
76-77°F
40%
78-79°F
40%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
6%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
83%
67°F or below 83%
86°F or higher 83%
74-75°F 40%
76-77°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
67°F or below
$40 Vol.
83%
68-69°F
$20 Vol.
22%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
22%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
22%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
40%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
40%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
40%
80-81°F
$10 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$100 Vol.
6%
84-85°F
$100 Vol.
<1%
86°F or higher
$100 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Austin show overnight lows stabilizing in the mid-70s°F on September 23, driven by persistent warm advection, high dew points near 70°F, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds. Model consensus points to a minimum near 75–77°F, though scattered afternoon convection and subtle steering variations introduce spread that keeps the 67°F-or-below and 86°F-or-higher bins tied at 41.5% each. Traders weigh historical September climatology against current guidance, noting that even modest increases in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could shift the realized low by several degrees within the 72–77°F resolution bands. Updated model runs tonight will clarify whether the market-implied odds converge on the central bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$371End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Austin show overnight lows stabilizing in the mid-70s°F on September 23, driven by persistent warm advection, high dew points near 70°F, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds. Model consensus points to a minimum near 75–77°F, though scattered afternoon convection and subtle steering variations introduce spread that keeps the 67°F-or-below and 86°F-or-higher bins tied at 41.5% each. Traders weigh historical September climatology against current guidance, noting that even modest increases in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could shift the realized low by several degrees within the 72–77°F resolution bands. Updated model runs tonight will clarify whether the market-implied odds converge on the central bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$371End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Austin show overnight lows stabilizing in the mid-70s°F on September 23, driven by persistent warm advection, high dew points near 70°F, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds. Model consensus points to a minimum near 75–77°F, though scattered afternoon convection and subtle steering variations introduce spread that keeps the 67°F-or-below and 86°F-or-higher bins tied at 41.5% each. Traders weigh historical September climatology against current guidance, noting that even modest increases in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could shift the realized low by several degrees within the 72–77°F resolution bands. Updated model runs tonight will clarify whether the market-implied odds converge on the central bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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