Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate the overnight minimum in Amsterdam will likely settle near 11–13°C under mostly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and moderate humidity, limiting radiative cooling compared to clearer conditions. This aligns with the market's strong emphasis on 11°C (71.5% implied probability) and 10°C, as traders weigh the current high-pressure pattern and recent September nights that have produced lows of 11–12°C. Historical averages for the date hover around 10.4°C, but warmer-than-normal daytime readings and limited wind have tempered further drops. Updated model runs and any late-evening observations from KNMI stations will refine the final recorded minimum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 22?
11°C 99.5%
8°C 1.0%
9°C 1.0%
10°C 1.0%
$953 Vol.
$953 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
100%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 99.5%
8°C 1.0%
9°C 1.0%
10°C 1.0%
$953 Vol.
$953 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
7°C or below
$8 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$0 Vol.
1%
9°C
$0 Vol.
1%
10°C
$30 Vol.
1%
11°C
$740 Vol.
100%
12°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$43 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$25 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate the overnight minimum in Amsterdam will likely settle near 11–13°C under mostly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and moderate humidity, limiting radiative cooling compared to clearer conditions. This aligns with the market's strong emphasis on 11°C (71.5% implied probability) and 10°C, as traders weigh the current high-pressure pattern and recent September nights that have produced lows of 11–12°C. Historical averages for the date hover around 10.4°C, but warmer-than-normal daytime readings and limited wind have tempered further drops. Updated model runs and any late-evening observations from KNMI stations will refine the final recorded minimum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$953End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate the overnight minimum in Amsterdam will likely settle near 11–13°C under mostly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and moderate humidity, limiting radiative cooling compared to clearer conditions. This aligns with the market's strong emphasis on 11°C (71.5% implied probability) and 10°C, as traders weigh the current high-pressure pattern and recent September nights that have produced lows of 11–12°C. Historical averages for the date hover around 10.4°C, but warmer-than-normal daytime readings and limited wind have tempered further drops. Updated model runs and any late-evening observations from KNMI stations will refine the final recorded minimum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$953End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological models indicate the overnight minimum in Amsterdam will likely settle near 11–13°C under mostly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and moderate humidity, limiting radiative cooling compared to clearer conditions. This aligns with the market's strong emphasis on 11°C (71.5% implied probability) and 10°C, as traders weigh the current high-pressure pattern and recent September nights that have produced lows of 11–12°C. Historical averages for the date hover around 10.4°C, but warmer-than-normal daytime readings and limited wind have tempered further drops. Updated model runs and any late-evening observations from KNMI stations will refine the final recorded minimum before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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