Trader consensus strongly favors the 100–129 bin at 98% implied probability because NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and National Centers for Environmental Information have tallied 111 confirmed U.S. tornadoes for July 2026— squarely inside that range and near the long-term July average of 119. Activity remained typical for midsummer, with the jet stream favoring the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes while only one tropical system contributed limited spin-ups and fewer Midwest events than in June. Preliminary reports aligned closely with final quality-controlled counts, leaving little room for revision. A realistic challenge would require a late surge of additional confirmations or reclassifications pushing the total above 129 or below 100, though current verified data make such shifts improbable before final archiving.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in July?
How many Tornadoes in the US in July?
100–129 98.0%
190–219 1.8%
<100 1.3%
250–279 <1%
$4,282 Vol.
$4,282 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
<100
1%
100–129
98%
130–159
1%
160–189
33%
190–219
2%
220–249
<1%
250–279
1%
280–310
<1%
310+
<1%
100–129 98.0%
190–219 1.8%
<100 1.3%
250–279 <1%
$4,282 Vol.
$4,282 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
<100
$810 Vol.
1%
100–129
$679 Vol.
98%
130–159
$429 Vol.
1%
160–189
$356 Vol.
33%
190–219
$320 Vol.
2%
220–249
$319 Vol.
<1%
250–279
$426 Vol.
1%
280–310
$479 Vol.
<1%
310+
$464 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus strongly favors the 100–129 bin at 98% implied probability because NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and National Centers for Environmental Information have tallied 111 confirmed U.S. tornadoes for July 2026— squarely inside that range and near the long-term July average of 119. Activity remained typical for midsummer, with the jet stream favoring the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes while only one tropical system contributed limited spin-ups and fewer Midwest events than in June. Preliminary reports aligned closely with final quality-controlled counts, leaving little room for revision. A realistic challenge would require a late surge of additional confirmations or reclassifications pushing the total above 129 or below 100, though current verified data make such shifts improbable before final archiving.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
Volume
$4,282End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus strongly favors the 100–129 bin at 98% implied probability because NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and National Centers for Environmental Information have tallied 111 confirmed U.S. tornadoes for July 2026— squarely inside that range and near the long-term July average of 119. Activity remained typical for midsummer, with the jet stream favoring the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes while only one tropical system contributed limited spin-ups and fewer Midwest events than in June. Preliminary reports aligned closely with final quality-controlled counts, leaving little room for revision. A realistic challenge would require a late surge of additional confirmations or reclassifications pushing the total above 129 or below 100, though current verified data make such shifts improbable before final archiving.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$4,282End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly favors the 100–129 bin at 98% implied probability because NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and National Centers for Environmental Information have tallied 111 confirmed U.S. tornadoes for July 2026— squarely inside that range and near the long-term July average of 119. Activity remained typical for midsummer, with the jet stream favoring the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes while only one tropical system contributed limited spin-ups and fewer Midwest events than in June. Preliminary reports aligned closely with final quality-controlled counts, leaving little room for revision. A realistic challenge would require a late surge of additional confirmations or reclassifications pushing the total above 129 or below 100, though current verified data make such shifts improbable before final archiving.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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