Recent official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting model guidance indicate a sunny day with a high near 25°C for Toronto on August 21, aligning with the market’s strong 63% implied probability for that exact outcome. Late-August climatology in the region shows daily highs typically declining from 26–27°C early in the month toward 24°C by month’s end, with 25°C falling squarely in the middle of the historical distribution. Current synoptic conditions feature modest warmth under high pressure with only isolated thunderstorm risk, limiting upside potential for 27°C or higher while keeping downside limited to brief cooling. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow 24–26°C window most heavily, reflecting consensus across agency guidance and the narrow range of plausible temperature outcomes on the day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on August 21?
Highest temperature in Toronto on August 21?
25°C 63%
26°C 21%
24°C 18%
27°C 2.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
18%
25°C
63%
26°C
21%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 63%
26°C 21%
24°C 18%
27°C 2.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
21°C or below
$209 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$219 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$633 Vol.
2%
24°C
$1,764 Vol.
18%
25°C
$2,278 Vol.
63%
26°C
$1,359 Vol.
21%
27°C
$607 Vol.
2%
28°C
$173 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$315 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$135 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting model guidance indicate a sunny day with a high near 25°C for Toronto on August 21, aligning with the market’s strong 63% implied probability for that exact outcome. Late-August climatology in the region shows daily highs typically declining from 26–27°C early in the month toward 24°C by month’s end, with 25°C falling squarely in the middle of the historical distribution. Current synoptic conditions feature modest warmth under high pressure with only isolated thunderstorm risk, limiting upside potential for 27°C or higher while keeping downside limited to brief cooling. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow 24–26°C window most heavily, reflecting consensus across agency guidance and the narrow range of plausible temperature outcomes on the day.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$7,833End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting model guidance indicate a sunny day with a high near 25°C for Toronto on August 21, aligning with the market’s strong 63% implied probability for that exact outcome. Late-August climatology in the region shows daily highs typically declining from 26–27°C early in the month toward 24°C by month’s end, with 25°C falling squarely in the middle of the historical distribution. Current synoptic conditions feature modest warmth under high pressure with only isolated thunderstorm risk, limiting upside potential for 27°C or higher while keeping downside limited to brief cooling. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow 24–26°C window most heavily, reflecting consensus across agency guidance and the narrow range of plausible temperature outcomes on the day.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,833End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting model guidance indicate a sunny day with a high near 25°C for Toronto on August 21, aligning with the market’s strong 63% implied probability for that exact outcome. Late-August climatology in the region shows daily highs typically declining from 26–27°C early in the month toward 24°C by month’s end, with 25°C falling squarely in the middle of the historical distribution. Current synoptic conditions feature modest warmth under high pressure with only isolated thunderstorm risk, limiting upside potential for 27°C or higher while keeping downside limited to brief cooling. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow 24–26°C window most heavily, reflecting consensus across agency guidance and the narrow range of plausible temperature outcomes on the day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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