Recent forecasts from meteorological services indicate a daytime high near 25°C in São Paulo on August 21, consistent with the market's strongest implied probability at that level. August represents mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when average maximum temperatures typically range 22–25°C amid drier conditions and reduced solar heating compared with summer months. The month has run about 2°C above the long-term normal so far, with isolated peaks above 30°C, yet a cloudy pattern with late showers and moderate northwesterly winds is expected to limit further warming today. These near-term conditions, combined with model consensus showing limited variability, explain why outcomes of 25–27°C dominate trader positioning while probabilities drop sharply outside that narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 21?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 21?
25°C 41%
26°C 31%
27°C 24%
28°C 4%
NEW
$15,943 Vol.
NEW
$15,943 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
41%
26°C
31%
27°C
24%
28°C
4%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 41%
26°C 31%
27°C 24%
28°C 4%
NEW
$15,943 Vol.
NEW
$15,943 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
20°C or below
$335 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$322 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$676 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$803 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$10,367 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,010 Vol.
41%
26°C
$810 Vol.
31%
27°C
$731 Vol.
24%
28°C
$86 Vol.
4%
29°C
$128 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$676 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological services indicate a daytime high near 25°C in São Paulo on August 21, consistent with the market's strongest implied probability at that level. August represents mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when average maximum temperatures typically range 22–25°C amid drier conditions and reduced solar heating compared with summer months. The month has run about 2°C above the long-term normal so far, with isolated peaks above 30°C, yet a cloudy pattern with late showers and moderate northwesterly winds is expected to limit further warming today. These near-term conditions, combined with model consensus showing limited variability, explain why outcomes of 25–27°C dominate trader positioning while probabilities drop sharply outside that narrow band.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 9:55 PM ET
Volume
$15,943End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological services indicate a daytime high near 25°C in São Paulo on August 21, consistent with the market's strongest implied probability at that level. August represents mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when average maximum temperatures typically range 22–25°C amid drier conditions and reduced solar heating compared with summer months. The month has run about 2°C above the long-term normal so far, with isolated peaks above 30°C, yet a cloudy pattern with late showers and moderate northwesterly winds is expected to limit further warming today. These near-term conditions, combined with model consensus showing limited variability, explain why outcomes of 25–27°C dominate trader positioning while probabilities drop sharply outside that narrow band.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,943End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological services indicate a daytime high near 25°C in São Paulo on August 21, consistent with the market's strongest implied probability at that level. August represents mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when average maximum temperatures typically range 22–25°C amid drier conditions and reduced solar heating compared with summer months. The month has run about 2°C above the long-term normal so far, with isolated peaks above 30°C, yet a cloudy pattern with late showers and moderate northwesterly winds is expected to limit further warming today. These near-term conditions, combined with model consensus showing limited variability, explain why outcomes of 25–27°C dominate trader positioning while probabilities drop sharply outside that narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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