Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate stable high-pressure conditions and southerly flow over the Yellow Sea region, supporting mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with light winds for Qingdao on August 26. This setup favors daytime heating but limits extreme maxima, with consensus forecasts centering on highs of 27–30 °C, close to the long-term August average. Ensemble spreads allow modest upside potential from localized effects or model bias, positioning 33 °C as the modal market-implied outcome at 45 % while clustering probabilities around 32–34 °C. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these estimates ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 26?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on August 26?
33°C 44%
34°C 22%
32°C 20%
31°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
5%
32°C
20%
33°C
44%
34°C
22%
35°C or higher
5%
33°C 44%
34°C 22%
32°C 20%
31°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
25°C or below
$67 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$67 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$506 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$676 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$26 Vol.
1%
30°C
$115 Vol.
4%
31°C
$124 Vol.
5%
32°C
$364 Vol.
20%
33°C
$159 Vol.
44%
34°C
$134 Vol.
22%
35°C or higher
$328 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate stable high-pressure conditions and southerly flow over the Yellow Sea region, supporting mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with light winds for Qingdao on August 26. This setup favors daytime heating but limits extreme maxima, with consensus forecasts centering on highs of 27–30 °C, close to the long-term August average. Ensemble spreads allow modest upside potential from localized effects or model bias, positioning 33 °C as the modal market-implied outcome at 45 % while clustering probabilities around 32–34 °C. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these estimates ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$2,565End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate stable high-pressure conditions and southerly flow over the Yellow Sea region, supporting mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with light winds for Qingdao on August 26. This setup favors daytime heating but limits extreme maxima, with consensus forecasts centering on highs of 27–30 °C, close to the long-term August average. Ensemble spreads allow modest upside potential from localized effects or model bias, positioning 33 °C as the modal market-implied outcome at 45 % while clustering probabilities around 32–34 °C. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these estimates ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,565End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate stable high-pressure conditions and southerly flow over the Yellow Sea region, supporting mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with light winds for Qingdao on August 26. This setup favors daytime heating but limits extreme maxima, with consensus forecasts centering on highs of 27–30 °C, close to the long-term August average. Ensemble spreads allow modest upside potential from localized effects or model bias, positioning 33 °C as the modal market-implied outcome at 45 % while clustering probabilities around 32–34 °C. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these estimates ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions