Recent model consensus from Météo-France, ECMWF, and UK Met Office points to moderating temperatures on August 15 due to increasing cloud cover and a risk of afternoon thunderstorms as the mid-August heat dome weakens and Atlantic moisture intrudes. This setup favors a daily maximum near 32–34 °C over central Paris, with reduced solar heating and localized evaporative cooling limiting further rises. Ensemble spreads show the strongest probability mass clustered at 33 °C, consistent with the market-implied odds, while drier, sunnier solutions that could push readings to 35 °C carry lower weight. Historical August climatology in the Paris basin rarely exceeds 35 °C after mid-month frontal passages, reinforcing trader focus on the near-term forecast evolution and any final model updates before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 15?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?
33°C 44%
34°C 31%
32°C 13%
35°C 12%
NEW
$12,337 Vol.
NEW
$12,337 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
4%
32°C
13%
33°C
44%
34°C
31%
35°C
12%
36°C
2%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 44%
34°C 31%
32°C 13%
35°C 12%
NEW
$12,337 Vol.
NEW
$12,337 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
$702 Vol.
1%
31°C
$2,165 Vol.
4%
32°C
$2,631 Vol.
13%
33°C
$2,307 Vol.
44%
34°C
$1,497 Vol.
31%
35°C
$623 Vol.
12%
36°C
$676 Vol.
2%
37°C
$452 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$358 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$457 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$467 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from Météo-France, ECMWF, and UK Met Office points to moderating temperatures on August 15 due to increasing cloud cover and a risk of afternoon thunderstorms as the mid-August heat dome weakens and Atlantic moisture intrudes. This setup favors a daily maximum near 32–34 °C over central Paris, with reduced solar heating and localized evaporative cooling limiting further rises. Ensemble spreads show the strongest probability mass clustered at 33 °C, consistent with the market-implied odds, while drier, sunnier solutions that could push readings to 35 °C carry lower weight. Historical August climatology in the Paris basin rarely exceeds 35 °C after mid-month frontal passages, reinforcing trader focus on the near-term forecast evolution and any final model updates before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$12,337End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from Météo-France, ECMWF, and UK Met Office points to moderating temperatures on August 15 due to increasing cloud cover and a risk of afternoon thunderstorms as the mid-August heat dome weakens and Atlantic moisture intrudes. This setup favors a daily maximum near 32–34 °C over central Paris, with reduced solar heating and localized evaporative cooling limiting further rises. Ensemble spreads show the strongest probability mass clustered at 33 °C, consistent with the market-implied odds, while drier, sunnier solutions that could push readings to 35 °C carry lower weight. Historical August climatology in the Paris basin rarely exceeds 35 °C after mid-month frontal passages, reinforcing trader focus on the near-term forecast evolution and any final model updates before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,337End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from Météo-France, ECMWF, and UK Met Office points to moderating temperatures on August 15 due to increasing cloud cover and a risk of afternoon thunderstorms as the mid-August heat dome weakens and Atlantic moisture intrudes. This setup favors a daily maximum near 32–34 °C over central Paris, with reduced solar heating and localized evaporative cooling limiting further rises. Ensemble spreads show the strongest probability mass clustered at 33 °C, consistent with the market-implied odds, while drier, sunnier solutions that could push readings to 35 °C carry lower weight. Historical August climatology in the Paris basin rarely exceeds 35 °C after mid-month frontal passages, reinforcing trader focus on the near-term forecast evolution and any final model updates before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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