Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Italian meteorological services indicate a most likely daily maximum of 30–31°C in Milan on August 27, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and residual warmth in the Po Valley ahead of a weak frontal passage. Model consensus shows modest spread around this range, with urban heat-island effects at official stations supporting readings near the upper end of historical late-August norms (typically 28–30°C). Recent similar markets resolved at 31°C, reinforcing trader weighting toward 30°C (49.5% implied) and 31°C (30.5%), while lower probabilities on 32°C+ reflect expectations of partial cooling or measurement precision limits. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will provide the key signal for any shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 27?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 27?
30°C 48%
31°C 28%
28°C 18%
29°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
24°C or below
2%
25°C
4%
26°C
4%
27°C
4%
28°C
18%
29°C
16%
30°C
48%
31°C
28%
32°C
4%
33°C
3%
34°C or higher
5%
30°C 48%
31°C 28%
28°C 18%
29°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
4%
26°C
$0 Vol.
4%
27°C
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C
$0 Vol.
18%
29°C
$35 Vol.
16%
30°C
$26 Vol.
48%
31°C
$0 Vol.
28%
32°C
$0 Vol.
4%
33°C
$50 Vol.
3%
34°C or higher
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Italian meteorological services indicate a most likely daily maximum of 30–31°C in Milan on August 27, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and residual warmth in the Po Valley ahead of a weak frontal passage. Model consensus shows modest spread around this range, with urban heat-island effects at official stations supporting readings near the upper end of historical late-August norms (typically 28–30°C). Recent similar markets resolved at 31°C, reinforcing trader weighting toward 30°C (49.5% implied) and 31°C (30.5%), while lower probabilities on 32°C+ reflect expectations of partial cooling or measurement precision limits. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will provide the key signal for any shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$111End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Italian meteorological services indicate a most likely daily maximum of 30–31°C in Milan on August 27, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and residual warmth in the Po Valley ahead of a weak frontal passage. Model consensus shows modest spread around this range, with urban heat-island effects at official stations supporting readings near the upper end of historical late-August norms (typically 28–30°C). Recent similar markets resolved at 31°C, reinforcing trader weighting toward 30°C (49.5% implied) and 31°C (30.5%), while lower probabilities on 32°C+ reflect expectations of partial cooling or measurement precision limits. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will provide the key signal for any shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$111End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Italian meteorological services indicate a most likely daily maximum of 30–31°C in Milan on August 27, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and residual warmth in the Po Valley ahead of a weak frontal passage. Model consensus shows modest spread around this range, with urban heat-island effects at official stations supporting readings near the upper end of historical late-August norms (typically 28–30°C). Recent similar markets resolved at 31°C, reinforcing trader weighting toward 30°C (49.5% implied) and 31°C (30.5%), while lower probabilities on 32°C+ reflect expectations of partial cooling or measurement precision limits. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will provide the key signal for any shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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