Recent PAGASA guidance and ensemble models place Manila under the southwest monsoon on August 15, with a 25–33°C envelope and 90–100% rain probability that favors modest afternoon peaks near 30–32°C amid high humidity near 80% and scattered convection. These conditions limit solar heating while localized showers can briefly suppress or enhance temperatures, explaining the tight clustering around 31°C (36.5%) and 32°C (30.0%) as traders weigh model spread and typical August climatology of 30–31°C highs. Official maximum temperature resolution will hinge on the precise timing and intensity of any convection relative to peak insolation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 15?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 15?
31°C 44%
32°C 29%
30°C 17%
33°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
5%
30°C
17%
31°C
44%
32°C
29%
33°C
7%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 44%
32°C 29%
30°C 17%
33°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
$487 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$332 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$185 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,070 Vol.
1%
29°C
$553 Vol.
5%
30°C
$545 Vol.
17%
31°C
$1,101 Vol.
44%
32°C
$1,703 Vol.
29%
33°C
$611 Vol.
7%
34°C
$209 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$246 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA guidance and ensemble models place Manila under the southwest monsoon on August 15, with a 25–33°C envelope and 90–100% rain probability that favors modest afternoon peaks near 30–32°C amid high humidity near 80% and scattered convection. These conditions limit solar heating while localized showers can briefly suppress or enhance temperatures, explaining the tight clustering around 31°C (36.5%) and 32°C (30.0%) as traders weigh model spread and typical August climatology of 30–31°C highs. Official maximum temperature resolution will hinge on the precise timing and intensity of any convection relative to peak insolation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$7,043End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA guidance and ensemble models place Manila under the southwest monsoon on August 15, with a 25–33°C envelope and 90–100% rain probability that favors modest afternoon peaks near 30–32°C amid high humidity near 80% and scattered convection. These conditions limit solar heating while localized showers can briefly suppress or enhance temperatures, explaining the tight clustering around 31°C (36.5%) and 32°C (30.0%) as traders weigh model spread and typical August climatology of 30–31°C highs. Official maximum temperature resolution will hinge on the precise timing and intensity of any convection relative to peak insolation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,043End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent PAGASA guidance and ensemble models place Manila under the southwest monsoon on August 15, with a 25–33°C envelope and 90–100% rain probability that favors modest afternoon peaks near 30–32°C amid high humidity near 80% and scattered convection. These conditions limit solar heating while localized showers can briefly suppress or enhance temperatures, explaining the tight clustering around 31°C (36.5%) and 32°C (30.0%) as traders weigh model spread and typical August climatology of 30–31°C highs. Official maximum temperature resolution will hinge on the precise timing and intensity of any convection relative to peak insolation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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