Latest model consensus from sources including GFS and European guidance points to a partly cloudy day with southwest winds and a peak temperature near 28–29°C in Madrid on August 26, positioning 29°C as the leading market outcome. This aligns with the observed cooling trend after mid-August heat, when daily highs reached 36–38°C earlier in the month, and matches climatological expectations of a 30.9°C average high for the date tempered by increased Atlantic moisture and cloud cover. Forecast spreads remain narrow due to consistent model agreement and low precipitation risk, though minor variations in afternoon mixing or timing of peak insolation could shift the exact maximum by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
29°C 56%
30°C 26%
28°C 16%
31°C 4%
NEW
$12,162 Vol.
NEW
$12,162 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
16%
29°C
56%
30°C
26%
31°C
4%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 56%
30°C 26%
28°C 16%
31°C 4%
NEW
$12,162 Vol.
NEW
$12,162 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
25°C or below
$334 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$135 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$640 Vol.
3%
28°C
$3,493 Vol.
16%
29°C
$1,256 Vol.
56%
30°C
$4,827 Vol.
26%
31°C
$643 Vol.
4%
32°C
$163 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$105 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$369 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest model consensus from sources including GFS and European guidance points to a partly cloudy day with southwest winds and a peak temperature near 28–29°C in Madrid on August 26, positioning 29°C as the leading market outcome. This aligns with the observed cooling trend after mid-August heat, when daily highs reached 36–38°C earlier in the month, and matches climatological expectations of a 30.9°C average high for the date tempered by increased Atlantic moisture and cloud cover. Forecast spreads remain narrow due to consistent model agreement and low precipitation risk, though minor variations in afternoon mixing or timing of peak insolation could shift the exact maximum by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$12,162End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest model consensus from sources including GFS and European guidance points to a partly cloudy day with southwest winds and a peak temperature near 28–29°C in Madrid on August 26, positioning 29°C as the leading market outcome. This aligns with the observed cooling trend after mid-August heat, when daily highs reached 36–38°C earlier in the month, and matches climatological expectations of a 30.9°C average high for the date tempered by increased Atlantic moisture and cloud cover. Forecast spreads remain narrow due to consistent model agreement and low precipitation risk, though minor variations in afternoon mixing or timing of peak insolation could shift the exact maximum by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,162End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest model consensus from sources including GFS and European guidance points to a partly cloudy day with southwest winds and a peak temperature near 28–29°C in Madrid on August 26, positioning 29°C as the leading market outcome. This aligns with the observed cooling trend after mid-August heat, when daily highs reached 36–38°C earlier in the month, and matches climatological expectations of a 30.9°C average high for the date tempered by increased Atlantic moisture and cloud cover. Forecast spreads remain narrow due to consistent model agreement and low precipitation risk, though minor variations in afternoon mixing or timing of peak insolation could shift the exact maximum by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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