Recent cool air advection from the Balkans, tied to a frontal system, has suppressed temperatures across the Marmara region and positioned 20°C as the leading market outcome for Istanbul’s September 24 maximum. Official forecasts cluster between 19–22°C under partly cloudy to clearing skies, with light winds and minimal daytime heating after Wednesday’s heavy rain. This aligns with the 53.5% implied probability on 20°C and secondary support for 21°C, reflecting model consensus on post-frontal stabilization rather than the seasonal average near 25°C. Traders appear to weight the latest guidance from regional meteorological centers, which shows limited warming potential before the 24-hour window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 24?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 24?
20°C 56%
21°C 16%
19°C 14%
18°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
16°C or below
2%
17°C
7%
18°C
8%
19°C
14%
20°C
56%
21°C
16%
22°C
5%
23°C
7%
24°C
2%
25°C
2%
26°C or higher
2%
20°C 56%
21°C 16%
19°C 14%
18°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$22 Vol.
7%
18°C
$7 Vol.
8%
19°C
$17 Vol.
14%
20°C
$78 Vol.
56%
21°C
$303 Vol.
16%
22°C
$99 Vol.
5%
23°C
$22 Vol.
7%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cool air advection from the Balkans, tied to a frontal system, has suppressed temperatures across the Marmara region and positioned 20°C as the leading market outcome for Istanbul’s September 24 maximum. Official forecasts cluster between 19–22°C under partly cloudy to clearing skies, with light winds and minimal daytime heating after Wednesday’s heavy rain. This aligns with the 53.5% implied probability on 20°C and secondary support for 21°C, reflecting model consensus on post-frontal stabilization rather than the seasonal average near 25°C. Traders appear to weight the latest guidance from regional meteorological centers, which shows limited warming potential before the 24-hour window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$548End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cool air advection from the Balkans, tied to a frontal system, has suppressed temperatures across the Marmara region and positioned 20°C as the leading market outcome for Istanbul’s September 24 maximum. Official forecasts cluster between 19–22°C under partly cloudy to clearing skies, with light winds and minimal daytime heating after Wednesday’s heavy rain. This aligns with the 53.5% implied probability on 20°C and secondary support for 21°C, reflecting model consensus on post-frontal stabilization rather than the seasonal average near 25°C. Traders appear to weight the latest guidance from regional meteorological centers, which shows limited warming potential before the 24-hour window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$548End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cool air advection from the Balkans, tied to a frontal system, has suppressed temperatures across the Marmara region and positioned 20°C as the leading market outcome for Istanbul’s September 24 maximum. Official forecasts cluster between 19–22°C under partly cloudy to clearing skies, with light winds and minimal daytime heating after Wednesday’s heavy rain. This aligns with the 53.5% implied probability on 20°C and secondary support for 21°C, reflecting model consensus on post-frontal stabilization rather than the seasonal average near 25°C. Traders appear to weight the latest guidance from regional meteorological centers, which shows limited warming potential before the 24-hour window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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