A cool, moist air mass advancing from the Balkans is driving the market's emphasis on lower temperatures for Istanbul on September 23, with northerly winds, widespread cloud cover, and heavy rainfall expected to enhance nocturnal cooling through evaporative effects and reduced insolation. Official forecasts from multiple models converge on a minimum of 12–14°C amid showers, several degrees below the seasonal climatological average near 15°C, as the system strengthens through the day and into the night. Trader positioning favoring 8°C or below alongside outcomes near 11–13°C reflects uncertainty in exact boundary-layer cooling rates and potential localized variations under persistent precipitation, with fresh model runs and observational updates from regional meteorological services likely to refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 23?
8°C or below 43%
14°C 40%
11°C 22%
12°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
8°C or below
43%
9°C
18%
10°C
20%
11°C
22%
12°C
22%
13°C
21%
14°C
40%
15°C
19%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
8°C or below 43%
14°C 40%
11°C 22%
12°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
8°C or below
$100 Vol.
43%
9°C
$100 Vol.
18%
10°C
$40 Vol.
20%
11°C
$0 Vol.
22%
12°C
$0 Vol.
22%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
19%
16°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cool, moist air mass advancing from the Balkans is driving the market's emphasis on lower temperatures for Istanbul on September 23, with northerly winds, widespread cloud cover, and heavy rainfall expected to enhance nocturnal cooling through evaporative effects and reduced insolation. Official forecasts from multiple models converge on a minimum of 12–14°C amid showers, several degrees below the seasonal climatological average near 15°C, as the system strengthens through the day and into the night. Trader positioning favoring 8°C or below alongside outcomes near 11–13°C reflects uncertainty in exact boundary-layer cooling rates and potential localized variations under persistent precipitation, with fresh model runs and observational updates from regional meteorological services likely to refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$285End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cool, moist air mass advancing from the Balkans is driving the market's emphasis on lower temperatures for Istanbul on September 23, with northerly winds, widespread cloud cover, and heavy rainfall expected to enhance nocturnal cooling through evaporative effects and reduced insolation. Official forecasts from multiple models converge on a minimum of 12–14°C amid showers, several degrees below the seasonal climatological average near 15°C, as the system strengthens through the day and into the night. Trader positioning favoring 8°C or below alongside outcomes near 11–13°C reflects uncertainty in exact boundary-layer cooling rates and potential localized variations under persistent precipitation, with fresh model runs and observational updates from regional meteorological services likely to refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$285End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A cool, moist air mass advancing from the Balkans is driving the market's emphasis on lower temperatures for Istanbul on September 23, with northerly winds, widespread cloud cover, and heavy rainfall expected to enhance nocturnal cooling through evaporative effects and reduced insolation. Official forecasts from multiple models converge on a minimum of 12–14°C amid showers, several degrees below the seasonal climatological average near 15°C, as the system strengthens through the day and into the night. Trader positioning favoring 8°C or below alongside outcomes near 11–13°C reflects uncertainty in exact boundary-layer cooling rates and potential localized variations under persistent precipitation, with fresh model runs and observational updates from regional meteorological services likely to refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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