Short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF place Istanbul’s August 15 maximum between 25–28 °C, aligning with mid-August climatology of 27–29 °C highs and positioning 26 °C as the market leader at 60.5 % implied probability. Typical late-summer steering patterns, moderate northerly winds, partial cloud cover, and sea-breeze moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea limit daytime heating and reduce the likelihood of extremes above 27 °C or below 25 °C. These factors underpin the tight clustering of trader consensus on 25–27 °C outcomes while assigning minimal weight to outliers, with final verification expected within hours of local sunset on the resolution day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 15?
26°C 64%
25°C 22%
27°C 16%
28°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
22%
26°C
64%
27°C
16%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 64%
25°C 22%
27°C 16%
28°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
$432 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$557 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$626 Vol.
2%
25°C
$1,625 Vol.
22%
26°C
$2,358 Vol.
64%
27°C
$1,093 Vol.
16%
28°C
$725 Vol.
2%
29°C
$526 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$309 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$342 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$372 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF place Istanbul’s August 15 maximum between 25–28 °C, aligning with mid-August climatology of 27–29 °C highs and positioning 26 °C as the market leader at 60.5 % implied probability. Typical late-summer steering patterns, moderate northerly winds, partial cloud cover, and sea-breeze moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea limit daytime heating and reduce the likelihood of extremes above 27 °C or below 25 °C. These factors underpin the tight clustering of trader consensus on 25–27 °C outcomes while assigning minimal weight to outliers, with final verification expected within hours of local sunset on the resolution day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$8,967End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF place Istanbul’s August 15 maximum between 25–28 °C, aligning with mid-August climatology of 27–29 °C highs and positioning 26 °C as the market leader at 60.5 % implied probability. Typical late-summer steering patterns, moderate northerly winds, partial cloud cover, and sea-breeze moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea limit daytime heating and reduce the likelihood of extremes above 27 °C or below 25 °C. These factors underpin the tight clustering of trader consensus on 25–27 °C outcomes while assigning minimal weight to outliers, with final verification expected within hours of local sunset on the resolution day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,967End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF place Istanbul’s August 15 maximum between 25–28 °C, aligning with mid-August climatology of 27–29 °C highs and positioning 26 °C as the market leader at 60.5 % implied probability. Typical late-summer steering patterns, moderate northerly winds, partial cloud cover, and sea-breeze moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea limit daytime heating and reduce the likelihood of extremes above 27 °C or below 25 °C. These factors underpin the tight clustering of trader consensus on 25–27 °C outcomes while assigning minimal weight to outliers, with final verification expected within hours of local sunset on the resolution day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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