Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and AccuWeather models points to a mostly sunny August 15 with highs in the mid-to-upper 90s for Houston, driving the tight market spread between 94–97°F outcomes. Typical late-summer conditions feature high dew points near 78°F, which elevate heat indices but can limit surface heating through scattered sea-breeze convection or thin afternoon cloud cover. Minor model differences in timing of any onshore flow or isolated showers explain the split probabilities, as stronger mixing or brief storms could cap the maximum 1–2°F lower while clearer skies push readings toward 98°F. Historical August averages near 95°F provide context, with traders weighing these variables ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 15?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 15?
96-97°F 40%
94-95°F 34%
98-99°F 11%
92-93°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
7%
94-95°F
34%
96-97°F
40%
98-99°F
11%
100-101°F
4%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
<1%
96-97°F 40%
94-95°F 34%
98-99°F 11%
92-93°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
85°F or below
$117 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$143 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$184 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$113 Vol.
2%
92-93°F
$164 Vol.
7%
94-95°F
$327 Vol.
34%
96-97°F
$1,341 Vol.
40%
98-99°F
$247 Vol.
11%
100-101°F
$48 Vol.
4%
102-103°F
$234 Vol.
<1%
104°F or higher
$364 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and AccuWeather models points to a mostly sunny August 15 with highs in the mid-to-upper 90s for Houston, driving the tight market spread between 94–97°F outcomes. Typical late-summer conditions feature high dew points near 78°F, which elevate heat indices but can limit surface heating through scattered sea-breeze convection or thin afternoon cloud cover. Minor model differences in timing of any onshore flow or isolated showers explain the split probabilities, as stronger mixing or brief storms could cap the maximum 1–2°F lower while clearer skies push readings toward 98°F. Historical August averages near 95°F provide context, with traders weighing these variables ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$3,284End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and AccuWeather models points to a mostly sunny August 15 with highs in the mid-to-upper 90s for Houston, driving the tight market spread between 94–97°F outcomes. Typical late-summer conditions feature high dew points near 78°F, which elevate heat indices but can limit surface heating through scattered sea-breeze convection or thin afternoon cloud cover. Minor model differences in timing of any onshore flow or isolated showers explain the split probabilities, as stronger mixing or brief storms could cap the maximum 1–2°F lower while clearer skies push readings toward 98°F. Historical August averages near 95°F provide context, with traders weighing these variables ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,284End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and AccuWeather models points to a mostly sunny August 15 with highs in the mid-to-upper 90s for Houston, driving the tight market spread between 94–97°F outcomes. Typical late-summer conditions feature high dew points near 78°F, which elevate heat indices but can limit surface heating through scattered sea-breeze convection or thin afternoon cloud cover. Minor model differences in timing of any onshore flow or isolated showers explain the split probabilities, as stronger mixing or brief storms could cap the maximum 1–2°F lower while clearer skies push readings toward 98°F. Historical August averages near 95°F provide context, with traders weighing these variables ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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