Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature near 27–28°C for August 15, 2026, under a southwesterly airstream bringing occasional showers and high humidity that moderates overnight cooling. This aligns with typical August climatology where urban heat-island effects and cloud cover usually keep lows in the mid-to-upper 20s, though scattered convection could allow brief dips toward 26°C in some districts. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability ahead of any potential trough, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 26–27°C and explaining the near-even market-implied odds between those outcomes. Updated local observations and refined guidance issued tomorrow morning will provide the clearest signal for final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?
26°C 36%
27°C 31%
25°C 19%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
19%
26°C
36%
27°C
31%
28°C
7%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 36%
27°C 31%
25°C 19%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
$420 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$302 Vol.
1%
24°C
$537 Vol.
2%
25°C
$467 Vol.
19%
26°C
$1,392 Vol.
36%
27°C
$1,797 Vol.
31%
28°C
$381 Vol.
7%
29°C
$721 Vol.
2%
30°C
$467 Vol.
1%
31°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$347 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature near 27–28°C for August 15, 2026, under a southwesterly airstream bringing occasional showers and high humidity that moderates overnight cooling. This aligns with typical August climatology where urban heat-island effects and cloud cover usually keep lows in the mid-to-upper 20s, though scattered convection could allow brief dips toward 26°C in some districts. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability ahead of any potential trough, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 26–27°C and explaining the near-even market-implied odds between those outcomes. Updated local observations and refined guidance issued tomorrow morning will provide the clearest signal for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$6,954End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature near 27–28°C for August 15, 2026, under a southwesterly airstream bringing occasional showers and high humidity that moderates overnight cooling. This aligns with typical August climatology where urban heat-island effects and cloud cover usually keep lows in the mid-to-upper 20s, though scattered convection could allow brief dips toward 26°C in some districts. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability ahead of any potential trough, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 26–27°C and explaining the near-even market-implied odds between those outcomes. Updated local observations and refined guidance issued tomorrow morning will provide the clearest signal for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,954End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature near 27–28°C for August 15, 2026, under a southwesterly airstream bringing occasional showers and high humidity that moderates overnight cooling. This aligns with typical August climatology where urban heat-island effects and cloud cover usually keep lows in the mid-to-upper 20s, though scattered convection could allow brief dips toward 26°C in some districts. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability ahead of any potential trough, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 26–27°C and explaining the near-even market-implied odds between those outcomes. Updated local observations and refined guidance issued tomorrow morning will provide the clearest signal for final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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