**Current National Weather Service and private model guidance for Dallas on September 24, 2026, clusters around a high of 92–96 °F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with light easterly flow.** This places the most likely outcome near or slightly above the 90–93 °F bands that currently hold the bulk of market-implied probability. Persistent late-summer warmth, driven by subsidence and a lack of strong frontal passages, continues to support temperatures 5–10 °F above the 1991–2020 September 24 climatological average of ~87 °F. Recent NWS tabular forecasts explicitly list 95–96 °F for the Dallas area and DFW Airport on the 24th, while some blended or global models trend a degree or two cooler depending on the precise amount of cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. The close clustering of the top three outcomes (90–91 °F at 33 %, 88–89 °F at 24.5 %, 92–93 °F at 21.5 %) reflects genuine short-range uncertainty: small differences in forecast dew points, wind speeds, or afternoon cloud development can shift the daily maximum by 2–4 °F. With no major weather system expected to arrive before the 24th, the market is effectively pricing the width of that narrow forecast envelope rather than a binary shift in the overall warm pattern. Updated NWS and high-resolution model runs over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any meaningful repricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on September 24?
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 24?
90-91°F 32%
88-89°F 24%
92-93°F 22%
94-95°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
24%
90-91°F
32%
92-93°F
22%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
9%
98-99°F
1%
100-101°F
<1%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
<1%
90-91°F 32%
88-89°F 24%
92-93°F 22%
94-95°F 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
85°F or below
$658 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$291 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$2,504 Vol.
24%
90-91°F
$860 Vol.
32%
92-93°F
$659 Vol.
22%
94-95°F
$1,218 Vol.
18%
96-97°F
$400 Vol.
9%
98-99°F
$141 Vol.
1%
100-101°F
$95 Vol.
<1%
102-103°F
$95 Vol.
<1%
104°F or higher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current National Weather Service and private model guidance for Dallas on September 24, 2026, clusters around a high of 92–96 °F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with light easterly flow.** This places the most likely outcome near or slightly above the 90–93 °F bands that currently hold the bulk of market-implied probability.
Persistent late-summer warmth, driven by subsidence and a lack of strong frontal passages, continues to support temperatures 5–10 °F above the 1991–2020 September 24 climatological average of ~87 °F. Recent NWS tabular forecasts explicitly list 95–96 °F for the Dallas area and DFW Airport on the 24th, while some blended or global models trend a degree or two cooler depending on the precise amount of cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing.
The close clustering of the top three outcomes (90–91 °F at 33 %, 88–89 °F at 24.5 %, 92–93 °F at 21.5 %) reflects genuine short-range uncertainty: small differences in forecast dew points, wind speeds, or afternoon cloud development can shift the daily maximum by 2–4 °F. With no major weather system expected to arrive before the 24th, the market is effectively pricing the width of that narrow forecast envelope rather than a binary shift in the overall warm pattern. Updated NWS and high-resolution model runs over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any meaningful repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$7,017End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current National Weather Service and private model guidance for Dallas on September 24, 2026, clusters around a high of 92–96 °F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with light easterly flow.** This places the most likely outcome near or slightly above the 90–93 °F bands that currently hold the bulk of market-implied probability.
Persistent late-summer warmth, driven by subsidence and a lack of strong frontal passages, continues to support temperatures 5–10 °F above the 1991–2020 September 24 climatological average of ~87 °F. Recent NWS tabular forecasts explicitly list 95–96 °F for the Dallas area and DFW Airport on the 24th, while some blended or global models trend a degree or two cooler depending on the precise amount of cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing.
The close clustering of the top three outcomes (90–91 °F at 33 %, 88–89 °F at 24.5 %, 92–93 °F at 21.5 %) reflects genuine short-range uncertainty: small differences in forecast dew points, wind speeds, or afternoon cloud development can shift the daily maximum by 2–4 °F. With no major weather system expected to arrive before the 24th, the market is effectively pricing the width of that narrow forecast envelope rather than a binary shift in the overall warm pattern. Updated NWS and high-resolution model runs over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any meaningful repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,017End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current National Weather Service and private model guidance for Dallas on September 24, 2026, clusters around a high of 92–96 °F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with light easterly flow.** This places the most likely outcome near or slightly above the 90–93 °F bands that currently hold the bulk of market-implied probability. Persistent late-summer warmth, driven by subsidence and a lack of strong frontal passages, continues to support temperatures 5–10 °F above the 1991–2020 September 24 climatological average of ~87 °F. Recent NWS tabular forecasts explicitly list 95–96 °F for the Dallas area and DFW Airport on the 24th, while some blended or global models trend a degree or two cooler depending on the precise amount of cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. The close clustering of the top three outcomes (90–91 °F at 33 %, 88–89 °F at 24.5 %, 92–93 °F at 21.5 %) reflects genuine short-range uncertainty: small differences in forecast dew points, wind speeds, or afternoon cloud development can shift the daily maximum by 2–4 °F. With no major weather system expected to arrive before the 24th, the market is effectively pricing the width of that narrow forecast envelope rather than a binary shift in the overall warm pattern. Updated NWS and high-resolution model runs over the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any meaningful repricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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