Official National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus from the GFS indicate a daily high near 96–97°F for Dallas on September 23 under mostly sunny skies, light easterly winds, and negligible precipitation chances. This aligns with the market’s leading bins of 94–95°F (47.5%) and 96–97°F (33.5%), reflecting trader assessment of the warm air mass and minimal cloud cover expected to limit afternoon mixing. Late-September climatology places average highs near 88°F, but persistent above-normal temperatures this month have elevated readings, with recent days reaching the upper 90s. Key resolution factors include the exact maximum recorded at official stations such as Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, where heat indices may exceed 100°F but do not alter the dry-bulb high. Updated model runs and NWS briefings remain the primary near-term catalysts for any probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on September 23?
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 23?
94-95°F 48%
96-97°F 34%
92-93°F 15%
90-91°F 4%
NEW
$19,981 Vol.
NEW
$19,981 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
4%
92-93°F
15%
94-95°F
48%
96-97°F
34%
98-99°F
2%
100-101°F
<1%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
<1%
94-95°F 48%
96-97°F 34%
92-93°F 15%
90-91°F 4%
NEW
$19,981 Vol.
NEW
$19,981 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
85°F or below
$95 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$95 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$265 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$2,532 Vol.
4%
92-93°F
$4,410 Vol.
15%
94-95°F
$3,504 Vol.
48%
96-97°F
$7,566 Vol.
34%
98-99°F
$1,173 Vol.
2%
100-101°F
$88 Vol.
<1%
102-103°F
$157 Vol.
<1%
104°F or higher
$103 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus from the GFS indicate a daily high near 96–97°F for Dallas on September 23 under mostly sunny skies, light easterly winds, and negligible precipitation chances. This aligns with the market’s leading bins of 94–95°F (47.5%) and 96–97°F (33.5%), reflecting trader assessment of the warm air mass and minimal cloud cover expected to limit afternoon mixing. Late-September climatology places average highs near 88°F, but persistent above-normal temperatures this month have elevated readings, with recent days reaching the upper 90s. Key resolution factors include the exact maximum recorded at official stations such as Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, where heat indices may exceed 100°F but do not alter the dry-bulb high. Updated model runs and NWS briefings remain the primary near-term catalysts for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$19,981End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus from the GFS indicate a daily high near 96–97°F for Dallas on September 23 under mostly sunny skies, light easterly winds, and negligible precipitation chances. This aligns with the market’s leading bins of 94–95°F (47.5%) and 96–97°F (33.5%), reflecting trader assessment of the warm air mass and minimal cloud cover expected to limit afternoon mixing. Late-September climatology places average highs near 88°F, but persistent above-normal temperatures this month have elevated readings, with recent days reaching the upper 90s. Key resolution factors include the exact maximum recorded at official stations such as Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, where heat indices may exceed 100°F but do not alter the dry-bulb high. Updated model runs and NWS briefings remain the primary near-term catalysts for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19,981End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus from the GFS indicate a daily high near 96–97°F for Dallas on September 23 under mostly sunny skies, light easterly winds, and negligible precipitation chances. This aligns with the market’s leading bins of 94–95°F (47.5%) and 96–97°F (33.5%), reflecting trader assessment of the warm air mass and minimal cloud cover expected to limit afternoon mixing. Late-September climatology places average highs near 88°F, but persistent above-normal temperatures this month have elevated readings, with recent days reaching the upper 90s. Key resolution factors include the exact maximum recorded at official stations such as Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, where heat indices may exceed 100°F but do not alter the dry-bulb high. Updated model runs and NWS briefings remain the primary near-term catalysts for any probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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