Latest global model runs from GFS and ECMWF place Chengdu’s maximum temperature on August 15 near 35–37 °C under typical mid-August subtropical conditions in the Sichuan basin, where high humidity and weak steering flow limit daytime mixing. Trader consensus clusters on 36 °C because ensemble members differ mainly in boundary-layer moisture and the timing of isolated afternoon convection, which can shave 1–2 °C off the peak if clouds or showers arrive earlier than expected. Historical August climatology shows frequent 34–36 °C readings, but recent upstream ridging has favored slightly warmer boundary conditions. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational adjustments from regional stations will be the next key inputs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 15?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 15?
36°C 39%
37°C 28%
35°C 18%
34°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
2%
33°C
3%
34°C
9%
35°C
18%
36°C
39%
37°C
28%
38°C
8%
39°C or higher
2%
36°C 39%
37°C 28%
35°C 18%
34°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
$1,547 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$774 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,504 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$484 Vol.
2%
33°C
$227 Vol.
3%
34°C
$487 Vol.
9%
35°C
$429 Vol.
18%
36°C
$745 Vol.
39%
37°C
$726 Vol.
28%
38°C
$496 Vol.
8%
39°C or higher
$316 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest global model runs from GFS and ECMWF place Chengdu’s maximum temperature on August 15 near 35–37 °C under typical mid-August subtropical conditions in the Sichuan basin, where high humidity and weak steering flow limit daytime mixing. Trader consensus clusters on 36 °C because ensemble members differ mainly in boundary-layer moisture and the timing of isolated afternoon convection, which can shave 1–2 °C off the peak if clouds or showers arrive earlier than expected. Historical August climatology shows frequent 34–36 °C readings, but recent upstream ridging has favored slightly warmer boundary conditions. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational adjustments from regional stations will be the next key inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$7,736End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest global model runs from GFS and ECMWF place Chengdu’s maximum temperature on August 15 near 35–37 °C under typical mid-August subtropical conditions in the Sichuan basin, where high humidity and weak steering flow limit daytime mixing. Trader consensus clusters on 36 °C because ensemble members differ mainly in boundary-layer moisture and the timing of isolated afternoon convection, which can shave 1–2 °C off the peak if clouds or showers arrive earlier than expected. Historical August climatology shows frequent 34–36 °C readings, but recent upstream ridging has favored slightly warmer boundary conditions. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational adjustments from regional stations will be the next key inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,736End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest global model runs from GFS and ECMWF place Chengdu’s maximum temperature on August 15 near 35–37 °C under typical mid-August subtropical conditions in the Sichuan basin, where high humidity and weak steering flow limit daytime mixing. Trader consensus clusters on 36 °C because ensemble members differ mainly in boundary-layer moisture and the timing of isolated afternoon convection, which can shave 1–2 °C off the peak if clouds or showers arrive earlier than expected. Historical August climatology shows frequent 34–36 °C readings, but recent upstream ridging has favored slightly warmer boundary conditions. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational adjustments from regional stations will be the next key inputs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions