Beijing's expected maximum temperature on August 26 hinges on evolving synoptic patterns, including the position of subtropical high pressure and any approaching cold fronts or moisture surges that modulate daytime heating. Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models currently favor a peak near 25°C, reflected in the market's leading 34% probability, though ensemble spreads introduce notable uncertainty across 24–27°C outcomes. Key variables include cloud cover reducing solar insolation, wind direction affecting advection of cooler air from the north, relative humidity influencing apparent heat, and Beijing's urban heat island effect amplifying readings at official stations. Recent model runs show modest cooling trends from prior days, keeping lower probabilities on 28°C or above while sustaining a wide distribution that underscores forecast variability typical for late-summer conditions in northern China.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 26?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 26?
25°C 34%
26°C 24%
24°C 16%
27°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
8%
24°C
16%
25°C
34%
26°C
24%
27°C
11%
28°C
6%
29°C
4%
30°C or higher
1%
25°C 34%
26°C 24%
24°C 16%
27°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
20°C or below
$203 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$107 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$306 Vol.
1%
23°C
$1,140 Vol.
8%
24°C
$2,174 Vol.
16%
25°C
$747 Vol.
34%
26°C
$323 Vol.
24%
27°C
$1,370 Vol.
11%
28°C
$900 Vol.
6%
29°C
$457 Vol.
4%
30°C or higher
$842 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Beijing's expected maximum temperature on August 26 hinges on evolving synoptic patterns, including the position of subtropical high pressure and any approaching cold fronts or moisture surges that modulate daytime heating. Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models currently favor a peak near 25°C, reflected in the market's leading 34% probability, though ensemble spreads introduce notable uncertainty across 24–27°C outcomes. Key variables include cloud cover reducing solar insolation, wind direction affecting advection of cooler air from the north, relative humidity influencing apparent heat, and Beijing's urban heat island effect amplifying readings at official stations. Recent model runs show modest cooling trends from prior days, keeping lower probabilities on 28°C or above while sustaining a wide distribution that underscores forecast variability typical for late-summer conditions in northern China.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$8,570End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Beijing's expected maximum temperature on August 26 hinges on evolving synoptic patterns, including the position of subtropical high pressure and any approaching cold fronts or moisture surges that modulate daytime heating. Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models currently favor a peak near 25°C, reflected in the market's leading 34% probability, though ensemble spreads introduce notable uncertainty across 24–27°C outcomes. Key variables include cloud cover reducing solar insolation, wind direction affecting advection of cooler air from the north, relative humidity influencing apparent heat, and Beijing's urban heat island effect amplifying readings at official stations. Recent model runs show modest cooling trends from prior days, keeping lower probabilities on 28°C or above while sustaining a wide distribution that underscores forecast variability typical for late-summer conditions in northern China.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,570End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Beijing's expected maximum temperature on August 26 hinges on evolving synoptic patterns, including the position of subtropical high pressure and any approaching cold fronts or moisture surges that modulate daytime heating. Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models currently favor a peak near 25°C, reflected in the market's leading 34% probability, though ensemble spreads introduce notable uncertainty across 24–27°C outcomes. Key variables include cloud cover reducing solar insolation, wind direction affecting advection of cooler air from the north, relative humidity influencing apparent heat, and Beijing's urban heat island effect amplifying readings at official stations. Recent model runs show modest cooling trends from prior days, keeping lower probabilities on 28°C or above while sustaining a wide distribution that underscores forecast variability typical for late-summer conditions in northern China.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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