**Forecast models for Beijing on August 26, 2026, show overnight lows clustered around 19–21°C amid a cooling trend and incoming showers.** Official guidance and ensemble outputs indicate overcast skies with late-day precipitation, which limits daytime heating and influences nocturnal radiative cooling. Cloud cover typically moderates temperature drops by trapping heat, while any heavier showers or increased wind could push the minimum slightly lower toward 19–20°C. Historical late-August climatology for the region averages lows near 20–22°C, providing context for the current spread. **Trader positioning reflects genuine uncertainty in model consensus rather than a single dominant outcome.** Variables such as exact rainfall timing, boundary-layer moisture, and the strength of the urban heat island effect in central Beijing create small but meaningful differences between 19°C and 21°C resolutions. With probabilities tightly grouped and no extreme scenarios favored, markets price in the range of plausible forecast adjustments expected from updated runs by agencies like the China Meteorological Administration or global models before the overnight period. Upcoming evening model releases will likely narrow the distribution as conditions evolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 26?
21°C 30%
20°C 27%
19°C 26%
23°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
17°C or below
2%
18°C
11%
19°C
26%
20°C
27%
21°C
30%
22°C
22%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
18%
26°C
5%
27°C or higher
2%
21°C 30%
20°C 27%
19°C 26%
23°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
17°C or below
$135 Vol.
2%
18°C
$46 Vol.
11%
19°C
$0 Vol.
26%
20°C
$0 Vol.
27%
21°C
$0 Vol.
30%
22°C
$0 Vol.
22%
23°C
$0 Vol.
26%
24°C
$0 Vol.
26%
25°C
$86 Vol.
18%
26°C
$5 Vol.
5%
27°C or higher
$130 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Beijing on August 26, 2026, show overnight lows clustered around 19–21°C amid a cooling trend and incoming showers.** Official guidance and ensemble outputs indicate overcast skies with late-day precipitation, which limits daytime heating and influences nocturnal radiative cooling. Cloud cover typically moderates temperature drops by trapping heat, while any heavier showers or increased wind could push the minimum slightly lower toward 19–20°C. Historical late-August climatology for the region averages lows near 20–22°C, providing context for the current spread.
**Trader positioning reflects genuine uncertainty in model consensus rather than a single dominant outcome.** Variables such as exact rainfall timing, boundary-layer moisture, and the strength of the urban heat island effect in central Beijing create small but meaningful differences between 19°C and 21°C resolutions. With probabilities tightly grouped and no extreme scenarios favored, markets price in the range of plausible forecast adjustments expected from updated runs by agencies like the China Meteorological Administration or global models before the overnight period. Upcoming evening model releases will likely narrow the distribution as conditions evolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$402End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Beijing on August 26, 2026, show overnight lows clustered around 19–21°C amid a cooling trend and incoming showers.** Official guidance and ensemble outputs indicate overcast skies with late-day precipitation, which limits daytime heating and influences nocturnal radiative cooling. Cloud cover typically moderates temperature drops by trapping heat, while any heavier showers or increased wind could push the minimum slightly lower toward 19–20°C. Historical late-August climatology for the region averages lows near 20–22°C, providing context for the current spread.
**Trader positioning reflects genuine uncertainty in model consensus rather than a single dominant outcome.** Variables such as exact rainfall timing, boundary-layer moisture, and the strength of the urban heat island effect in central Beijing create small but meaningful differences between 19°C and 21°C resolutions. With probabilities tightly grouped and no extreme scenarios favored, markets price in the range of plausible forecast adjustments expected from updated runs by agencies like the China Meteorological Administration or global models before the overnight period. Upcoming evening model releases will likely narrow the distribution as conditions evolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$402End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models for Beijing on August 26, 2026, show overnight lows clustered around 19–21°C amid a cooling trend and incoming showers.** Official guidance and ensemble outputs indicate overcast skies with late-day precipitation, which limits daytime heating and influences nocturnal radiative cooling. Cloud cover typically moderates temperature drops by trapping heat, while any heavier showers or increased wind could push the minimum slightly lower toward 19–20°C. Historical late-August climatology for the region averages lows near 20–22°C, providing context for the current spread. **Trader positioning reflects genuine uncertainty in model consensus rather than a single dominant outcome.** Variables such as exact rainfall timing, boundary-layer moisture, and the strength of the urban heat island effect in central Beijing create small but meaningful differences between 19°C and 21°C resolutions. With probabilities tightly grouped and no extreme scenarios favored, markets price in the range of plausible forecast adjustments expected from updated runs by agencies like the China Meteorological Administration or global models before the overnight period. Upcoming evening model releases will likely narrow the distribution as conditions evolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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