Current forecasts from major models position Beijing’s August 15 daytime high near 31–32 °C as the most probable outcome, driven by a weakening subtropical ridge, modest southerly flow, and scattered afternoon convection that limits full solar heating. Recent model runs show slight cooling from increased cloud cover and possible showers compared with earlier guidance, narrowing the distribution around these values while leaving modest probability for a 33 °C spike if skies clear earlier. Historical August averages near 30–31 °C and the typical 2–3 °C day-to-day variability in late-summer Beijing further anchor trader consensus at these levels ahead of final observational confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 15?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 15?
32°C 45%
31°C 31%
33°C 14%
30°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
7%
31°C
31%
32°C
45%
33°C
14%
34°C
3%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 45%
31°C 31%
33°C 14%
30°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$1,426 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$192 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$964 Vol.
2%
30°C
$1,390 Vol.
7%
31°C
$1,059 Vol.
31%
32°C
$1,580 Vol.
45%
33°C
$1,412 Vol.
14%
34°C
$665 Vol.
3%
35°C
$388 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$329 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$267 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from major models position Beijing’s August 15 daytime high near 31–32 °C as the most probable outcome, driven by a weakening subtropical ridge, modest southerly flow, and scattered afternoon convection that limits full solar heating. Recent model runs show slight cooling from increased cloud cover and possible showers compared with earlier guidance, narrowing the distribution around these values while leaving modest probability for a 33 °C spike if skies clear earlier. Historical August averages near 30–31 °C and the typical 2–3 °C day-to-day variability in late-summer Beijing further anchor trader consensus at these levels ahead of final observational confirmation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$8,022End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from major models position Beijing’s August 15 daytime high near 31–32 °C as the most probable outcome, driven by a weakening subtropical ridge, modest southerly flow, and scattered afternoon convection that limits full solar heating. Recent model runs show slight cooling from increased cloud cover and possible showers compared with earlier guidance, narrowing the distribution around these values while leaving modest probability for a 33 °C spike if skies clear earlier. Historical August averages near 30–31 °C and the typical 2–3 °C day-to-day variability in late-summer Beijing further anchor trader consensus at these levels ahead of final observational confirmation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,022End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from major models position Beijing’s August 15 daytime high near 31–32 °C as the most probable outcome, driven by a weakening subtropical ridge, modest southerly flow, and scattered afternoon convection that limits full solar heating. Recent model runs show slight cooling from increased cloud cover and possible showers compared with earlier guidance, narrowing the distribution around these values while leaving modest probability for a 33 °C spike if skies clear earlier. Historical August averages near 30–31 °C and the typical 2–3 °C day-to-day variability in late-summer Beijing further anchor trader consensus at these levels ahead of final observational confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions