**Persistent high pressure and southerly flow across Central Texas have sustained a regional heat wave, with National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus pointing to afternoon highs near 103–104 °F for Austin on August 21.** Limited cloud cover, light winds, and elevated dew points are driving heat indices above 110 °F, consistent with recent days of triple-digit readings and minimal precipitation. These conditions position the 102–103 °F bin as the market leader at 61 % implied probability, while the 24 % odds on 104–105 °F reflect uncertainty in exact peak timing and microscale variations captured by official observations. Traders are monitoring real-time updates from NWS Austin/San Antonio and any late-day convective development that could cap temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 21?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 21?
102-103°F 62%
104-105°F 25%
100-101°F 11%
106-107°F 5%
NEW
$12,968 Vol.
NEW
$12,968 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
93°F or below
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
<1%
100-101°F
11%
102-103°F
62%
104-105°F
25%
106-107°F
5%
108-109°F
<1%
110-111°F
<1%
112°F or higher
<1%
102-103°F 62%
104-105°F 25%
100-101°F 11%
106-107°F 5%
NEW
$12,968 Vol.
NEW
$12,968 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
93°F or below
$104 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$99 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$430 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$310 Vol.
<1%
100-101°F
$1,221 Vol.
11%
102-103°F
$3,631 Vol.
62%
104-105°F
$4,936 Vol.
25%
106-107°F
$1,136 Vol.
5%
108-109°F
$474 Vol.
<1%
110-111°F
$462 Vol.
<1%
112°F or higher
$165 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high pressure and southerly flow across Central Texas have sustained a regional heat wave, with National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus pointing to afternoon highs near 103–104 °F for Austin on August 21.** Limited cloud cover, light winds, and elevated dew points are driving heat indices above 110 °F, consistent with recent days of triple-digit readings and minimal precipitation. These conditions position the 102–103 °F bin as the market leader at 61 % implied probability, while the 24 % odds on 104–105 °F reflect uncertainty in exact peak timing and microscale variations captured by official observations. Traders are monitoring real-time updates from NWS Austin/San Antonio and any late-day convective development that could cap temperatures.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ET
Volume
$12,968End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high pressure and southerly flow across Central Texas have sustained a regional heat wave, with National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus pointing to afternoon highs near 103–104 °F for Austin on August 21.** Limited cloud cover, light winds, and elevated dew points are driving heat indices above 110 °F, consistent with recent days of triple-digit readings and minimal precipitation. These conditions position the 102–103 °F bin as the market leader at 61 % implied probability, while the 24 % odds on 104–105 °F reflect uncertainty in exact peak timing and microscale variations captured by official observations. Traders are monitoring real-time updates from NWS Austin/San Antonio and any late-day convective development that could cap temperatures.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,968End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent high pressure and southerly flow across Central Texas have sustained a regional heat wave, with National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus pointing to afternoon highs near 103–104 °F for Austin on August 21.** Limited cloud cover, light winds, and elevated dew points are driving heat indices above 110 °F, consistent with recent days of triple-digit readings and minimal precipitation. These conditions position the 102–103 °F bin as the market leader at 61 % implied probability, while the 24 % odds on 104–105 °F reflect uncertainty in exact peak timing and microscale variations captured by official observations. Traders are monitoring real-time updates from NWS Austin/San Antonio and any late-day convective development that could cap temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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