**Recent model consensus and observational trends point to a highest temperature near 24–26°C in Amsterdam on August 26, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes.** Late-August climatology shows average highs of 21–22°C that decline as solar insolation decreases and Atlantic westerlies strengthen, while early-month heat (locally exceeding 30°C) has given way to more moderate maritime air. Current forecasts from agencies such as the Met Office and regional models indicate daytime maxima of 23–25°C under partly cloudy skies with possible thundery showers, which would cap radiative heating and prevent excursions above 27°C. The narrow spread of implied probabilities around 24–26°C reflects this consensus while leaving room for modest forecast adjustments from the final model runs or local wind shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 26?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 26?
25°C 42%
26°C 24%
24°C 17%
27°C 8%
NEW
$16,313 Vol.
NEW
$16,313 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
6%
24°C
17%
25°C
42%
26°C
24%
27°C
8%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 42%
26°C 24%
24°C 17%
27°C 8%
NEW
$16,313 Vol.
NEW
$16,313 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
20°C or below
$90 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$883 Vol.
2%
23°C
$2,280 Vol.
6%
24°C
$6,967 Vol.
17%
25°C
$1,510 Vol.
42%
26°C
$2,967 Vol.
24%
27°C
$815 Vol.
8%
28°C
$118 Vol.
3%
29°C
$430 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$390 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus and observational trends point to a highest temperature near 24–26°C in Amsterdam on August 26, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes.**
Late-August climatology shows average highs of 21–22°C that decline as solar insolation decreases and Atlantic westerlies strengthen, while early-month heat (locally exceeding 30°C) has given way to more moderate maritime air. Current forecasts from agencies such as the Met Office and regional models indicate daytime maxima of 23–25°C under partly cloudy skies with possible thundery showers, which would cap radiative heating and prevent excursions above 27°C. The narrow spread of implied probabilities around 24–26°C reflects this consensus while leaving room for modest forecast adjustments from the final model runs or local wind shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$16,313End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus and observational trends point to a highest temperature near 24–26°C in Amsterdam on August 26, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes.**
Late-August climatology shows average highs of 21–22°C that decline as solar insolation decreases and Atlantic westerlies strengthen, while early-month heat (locally exceeding 30°C) has given way to more moderate maritime air. Current forecasts from agencies such as the Met Office and regional models indicate daytime maxima of 23–25°C under partly cloudy skies with possible thundery showers, which would cap radiative heating and prevent excursions above 27°C. The narrow spread of implied probabilities around 24–26°C reflects this consensus while leaving room for modest forecast adjustments from the final model runs or local wind shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,313End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model consensus and observational trends point to a highest temperature near 24–26°C in Amsterdam on August 26, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes.** Late-August climatology shows average highs of 21–22°C that decline as solar insolation decreases and Atlantic westerlies strengthen, while early-month heat (locally exceeding 30°C) has given way to more moderate maritime air. Current forecasts from agencies such as the Met Office and regional models indicate daytime maxima of 23–25°C under partly cloudy skies with possible thundery showers, which would cap radiative heating and prevent excursions above 27°C. The narrow spread of implied probabilities around 24–26°C reflects this consensus while leaving room for modest forecast adjustments from the final model runs or local wind shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions