Mount Etna's persistent low-to-moderate activity through mid-2026, including Strombolian explosions, ash emissions, and short lava flows from summit craters and flank vents, underpins the near-even odds on a VEI 2+ event for the full year. INGV monitoring shows current yellow alert status with mostly effusive or weakly explosive behavior whose plume heights and ejecta volumes often fall at or below the VEI 2 threshold of roughly 1–5 km plumes and modest tephra production. Scientific uncertainties center on rapid shifts in magma supply, gas pressure, and vent dynamics that can escalate intensity within days, alongside challenges in precise real-time VEI assignment during ongoing episodes. Traders weigh Etna's frequent historical VEI 1–2 summit events against the possibility that 2026 remains dominated by milder output. New INGV bulletins, seismic or deformation spikes, or aviation color-code changes could quickly shift the balance by signaling stronger explosive phases before year-end.