The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak, centered in DRC's Ituri and neighboring provinces since May 2026, has driven sustained trader caution around further geographic spread. With over 4,500 confirmed cases and rapid growth in recent weeks, intensified border surveillance, contact tracing, and U.S.-backed funding for screening in Uganda, South Sudan, and Rwanda have kept new-country detections at bay since imported cases surfaced in Europe earlier this summer. Uganda's outbreak was declared over in late July, and no fresh confirmations have emerged despite the large caseload. Key near-term catalysts include the August 18 WHO emergency committee review and October 1 deadline, leaving the market-implied 55% probability on "No" as a reflection of containment momentum tempered by the virus's cross-border mobility risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEbola: new country confirmed before October 1?
Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1?
45% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
45% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak, centered in DRC's Ituri and neighboring provinces since May 2026, has driven sustained trader caution around further geographic spread. With over 4,500 confirmed cases and rapid growth in recent weeks, intensified border surveillance, contact tracing, and U.S.-backed funding for screening in Uganda, South Sudan, and Rwanda have kept new-country detections at bay since imported cases surfaced in Europe earlier this summer. Uganda's outbreak was declared over in late July, and no fresh confirmations have emerged despite the large caseload. Key near-term catalysts include the August 18 WHO emergency committee review and October 1 deadline, leaving the market-implied 55% probability on "No" as a reflection of containment momentum tempered by the virus's cross-border mobility risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak, centered in DRC's Ituri and neighboring provinces since May 2026, has driven sustained trader caution around further geographic spread. With over 4,500 confirmed cases and rapid growth in recent weeks, intensified border surveillance, contact tracing, and U.S.-backed funding for screening in Uganda, South Sudan, and Rwanda have kept new-country detections at bay since imported cases surfaced in Europe earlier this summer. Uganda's outbreak was declared over in late July, and no fresh confirmations have emerged despite the large caseload. Key near-term catalysts include the August 18 WHO emergency committee review and October 1 deadline, leaving the market-implied 55% probability on "No" as a reflection of containment momentum tempered by the virus's cross-border mobility risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak, centered in DRC's Ituri and neighboring provinces since May 2026, has driven sustained trader caution around further geographic spread. With over 4,500 confirmed cases and rapid growth in recent weeks, intensified border surveillance, contact tracing, and U.S.-backed funding for screening in Uganda, South Sudan, and Rwanda have kept new-country detections at bay since imported cases surfaced in Europe earlier this summer. Uganda's outbreak was declared over in late July, and no fresh confirmations have emerged despite the large caseload. Key near-term catalysts include the August 18 WHO emergency committee review and October 1 deadline, leaving the market-implied 55% probability on "No" as a reflection of containment momentum tempered by the virus's cross-border mobility risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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