Recent polling averages place AfD support in Berlin at 16-19% ahead of the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, generating seat projections that cluster between roughly 26 and 34. This narrow band sustains tight pricing across the 26-28, 29-31, and 32-34 brackets as modest shifts in second-vote shares or turnout can move outcomes between them. An INSA survey in July marked the first time AfD topped a Berlin-specific poll, reflecting national momentum on migration, security, and economic concerns that has lifted the party in eastern and western states alike. The CDU-SPD incumbent coalition and competing opposition parties continue to draw support in the capital’s diverse electorate, while AfD’s isolation from potential coalition partners limits governing upside but does not cap its seat gains. Volatility in final-week turnout and any late campaign events could still widen the projected range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated26-28 26%
32-34 15%
35+ 12.3%
29-31 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<20
4%
20-22
6%
23-25
2%
26-28
26%
29-31
12%
32-34
25%
35+
12%
26-28 26%
32-34 15%
35+ 12.3%
29-31 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<20
$924 Vol.
4%
20-22
$1,494 Vol.
6%
23-25
$888 Vol.
2%
26-28
$1,876 Vol.
26%
29-31
$326 Vol.
12%
32-34
$203 Vol.
25%
35+
$3,321 Vol.
12%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place AfD support in Berlin at 16-19% ahead of the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, generating seat projections that cluster between roughly 26 and 34. This narrow band sustains tight pricing across the 26-28, 29-31, and 32-34 brackets as modest shifts in second-vote shares or turnout can move outcomes between them. An INSA survey in July marked the first time AfD topped a Berlin-specific poll, reflecting national momentum on migration, security, and economic concerns that has lifted the party in eastern and western states alike. The CDU-SPD incumbent coalition and competing opposition parties continue to draw support in the capital’s diverse electorate, while AfD’s isolation from potential coalition partners limits governing upside but does not cap its seat gains. Volatility in final-week turnout and any late campaign events could still widen the projected range.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$9,031End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place AfD support in Berlin at 16-19% ahead of the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, generating seat projections that cluster between roughly 26 and 34. This narrow band sustains tight pricing across the 26-28, 29-31, and 32-34 brackets as modest shifts in second-vote shares or turnout can move outcomes between them. An INSA survey in July marked the first time AfD topped a Berlin-specific poll, reflecting national momentum on migration, security, and economic concerns that has lifted the party in eastern and western states alike. The CDU-SPD incumbent coalition and competing opposition parties continue to draw support in the capital’s diverse electorate, while AfD’s isolation from potential coalition partners limits governing upside but does not cap its seat gains. Volatility in final-week turnout and any late campaign events could still widen the projected range.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$9,031End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place AfD support in Berlin at 16-19% ahead of the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, generating seat projections that cluster between roughly 26 and 34. This narrow band sustains tight pricing across the 26-28, 29-31, and 32-34 brackets as modest shifts in second-vote shares or turnout can move outcomes between them. An INSA survey in July marked the first time AfD topped a Berlin-specific poll, reflecting national momentum on migration, security, and economic concerns that has lifted the party in eastern and western states alike. The CDU-SPD incumbent coalition and competing opposition parties continue to draw support in the capital’s diverse electorate, while AfD’s isolation from potential coalition partners limits governing upside but does not cap its seat gains. Volatility in final-week turnout and any late campaign events could still widen the projected range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions