Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

95% chance

NEW

Apr 1, 2027

95% chance

NEW

Apr 1, 2027

This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF). This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data. The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 95% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 95¢, the market collectively assigns a 95% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?" is 95% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 95% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of "Yes" or "No" represents the market's implied probability. A "Yes" price of 95¢ for "Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?" means traders collectively believe there is a 95% chance this event will happen. If you buy "Yes" at 95¢ and the event does happen, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 5¢ per share. If the event doesn't happen, those shares are worth $0.

The "Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 31, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

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Frequently Asked Questions

Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

Order Book

Order Book

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?" prediction market?

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