Anthropic's Claude service has experienced multiple overload-related outages in August 2026, including elevated errors on models like Mythos 5, Fable 5, Sonnet 5, and Opus 5 around August 5 and August 13, driven by surging demand that outpaces infrastructure capacity. These incidents, often tied to 529 errors across the API, web app, and new offerings like Claude Code, align with a pattern of disruptions seen earlier in the year. Traders see the tight race between sub-5 and 5-7 total downtime days as reflecting uncertainty over whether recent scaling efforts will stabilize performance through the month's end or if peak usage will trigger additional events. Competitive pressure from other large language model providers amplifies focus on uptime as a key differentiator.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5-7 39.4%
<5 32.4%
8-10 21%
11-13 2.4%
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
40%
5-7
40%
8-10
21%
11-13
2%
14+
1%
5-7 39.4%
<5 32.4%
8-10 21%
11-13 2.4%
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$4,811 Vol.
40%
5-7
$5,166 Vol.
40%
8-10
$3,576 Vol.
21%
11-13
$1,253 Vol.
2%
14+
$1,727 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude service has experienced multiple overload-related outages in August 2026, including elevated errors on models like Mythos 5, Fable 5, Sonnet 5, and Opus 5 around August 5 and August 13, driven by surging demand that outpaces infrastructure capacity. These incidents, often tied to 529 errors across the API, web app, and new offerings like Claude Code, align with a pattern of disruptions seen earlier in the year. Traders see the tight race between sub-5 and 5-7 total downtime days as reflecting uncertainty over whether recent scaling efforts will stabilize performance through the month's end or if peak usage will trigger additional events. Competitive pressure from other large language model providers amplifies focus on uptime as a key differentiator.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$16,533End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude service has experienced multiple overload-related outages in August 2026, including elevated errors on models like Mythos 5, Fable 5, Sonnet 5, and Opus 5 around August 5 and August 13, driven by surging demand that outpaces infrastructure capacity. These incidents, often tied to 529 errors across the API, web app, and new offerings like Claude Code, align with a pattern of disruptions seen earlier in the year. Traders see the tight race between sub-5 and 5-7 total downtime days as reflecting uncertainty over whether recent scaling efforts will stabilize performance through the month's end or if peak usage will trigger additional events. Competitive pressure from other large language model providers amplifies focus on uptime as a key differentiator.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$16,533End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude service has experienced multiple overload-related outages in August 2026, including elevated errors on models like Mythos 5, Fable 5, Sonnet 5, and Opus 5 around August 5 and August 13, driven by surging demand that outpaces infrastructure capacity. These incidents, often tied to 529 errors across the API, web app, and new offerings like Claude Code, align with a pattern of disruptions seen earlier in the year. Traders see the tight race between sub-5 and 5-7 total downtime days as reflecting uncertainty over whether recent scaling efforts will stabilize performance through the month's end or if peak usage will trigger additional events. Competitive pressure from other large language model providers amplifies focus on uptime as a key differentiator.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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