Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 56% implied probability due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting the highest recent LiveBench coding scores, including an 86.0 mark on the June 2026 release that edges GPT-5.6 Sol variants from OpenAI. Rapid mid-2026 model iterations have narrowed gaps through gains in multi-file refactoring, reasoning chains, and agentic coding, leaving OpenAI at 31% while many other labs cluster near 50% amid benchmark volatility. Frequent fine-tunes, context expansions, and the next LiveBench refresh before the late-October resolution keep outcomes fluid, with Chinese models and open-weight entries adding tail-risk pressure in this closely contested race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 56%
OpenAI 31%
Xiaomi 5.9%
Nvidia 2.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
56%
OpenAI
31%
Xiaomi
6%
Nvidia
3%
Mistral
3%
Thinky
2%
MiniMax
2%
2%
Microsoft
1%
Baidu
1%
Amazon
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 56%
OpenAI 31%
Xiaomi 5.9%
Nvidia 2.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$835 Vol.
56%
OpenAI
$385 Vol.
31%
Xiaomi
$132 Vol.
6%
Nvidia
$139 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$125 Vol.
3%
Thinky
$146 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$134 Vol.
2%
$108 Vol.
2%
Microsoft
$146 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$104 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$134 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$93 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$98 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$93 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$73 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$73 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$120 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$93 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$93 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$98 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$93 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 56% implied probability due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting the highest recent LiveBench coding scores, including an 86.0 mark on the June 2026 release that edges GPT-5.6 Sol variants from OpenAI. Rapid mid-2026 model iterations have narrowed gaps through gains in multi-file refactoring, reasoning chains, and agentic coding, leaving OpenAI at 31% while many other labs cluster near 50% amid benchmark volatility. Frequent fine-tunes, context expansions, and the next LiveBench refresh before the late-October resolution keep outcomes fluid, with Chinese models and open-weight entries adding tail-risk pressure in this closely contested race.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$3,309End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 56% implied probability due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting the highest recent LiveBench coding scores, including an 86.0 mark on the June 2026 release that edges GPT-5.6 Sol variants from OpenAI. Rapid mid-2026 model iterations have narrowed gaps through gains in multi-file refactoring, reasoning chains, and agentic coding, leaving OpenAI at 31% while many other labs cluster near 50% amid benchmark volatility. Frequent fine-tunes, context expansions, and the next LiveBench refresh before the late-October resolution keep outcomes fluid, with Chinese models and open-weight entries adding tail-risk pressure in this closely contested race.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$3,309End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 56% implied probability due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting the highest recent LiveBench coding scores, including an 86.0 mark on the June 2026 release that edges GPT-5.6 Sol variants from OpenAI. Rapid mid-2026 model iterations have narrowed gaps through gains in multi-file refactoring, reasoning chains, and agentic coding, leaving OpenAI at 31% while many other labs cluster near 50% amid benchmark volatility. Frequent fine-tunes, context expansions, and the next LiveBench refresh before the late-October resolution keep outcomes fluid, with Chinese models and open-weight entries adding tail-risk pressure in this closely contested race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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