**OpenAI’s ChatGPT has seen several brief incidents in August 2026, including elevated error rates on August 10 and 11 plus warnings for free-tier conversations on the 13th and ongoing GPT-5.6 Terra response issues on the 14th–15th.** These have been short-lived, quickly mitigated, and often limited in scope, which aligns with the market’s strong 71.5% implied probability for fewer than three qualifying outage days. Traders appear to view most recent events as non-qualifying “elevated errors” or investigations rather than the partial or full outages tracked on status.openai.com. High uptime across APIs and services (99.67%+ recently reported) reinforces expectations of limited further disruptions through the month’s end. The 10% odds each for exactly three, four, or five days reflect the possibility of additional incidents, while the low 5% for six or more captures the historical rarity of prolonged downtime for the platform.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<3 72%
3 11%
4 10%
5 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<3
72%
3
11%
4
10%
5
10%
6+
4%
<3 72%
3 11%
4 10%
5 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<3
$1,295 Vol.
72%
3
$521 Vol.
11%
4
$1,076 Vol.
10%
5
$335 Vol.
10%
6+
$1,518 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**OpenAI’s ChatGPT has seen several brief incidents in August 2026, including elevated error rates on August 10 and 11 plus warnings for free-tier conversations on the 13th and ongoing GPT-5.6 Terra response issues on the 14th–15th.** These have been short-lived, quickly mitigated, and often limited in scope, which aligns with the market’s strong 71.5% implied probability for fewer than three qualifying outage days. Traders appear to view most recent events as non-qualifying “elevated errors” or investigations rather than the partial or full outages tracked on status.openai.com. High uptime across APIs and services (99.67%+ recently reported) reinforces expectations of limited further disruptions through the month’s end. The 10% odds each for exactly three, four, or five days reflect the possibility of additional incidents, while the low 5% for six or more captures the historical rarity of prolonged downtime for the platform.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
Volume
$4,745End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**OpenAI’s ChatGPT has seen several brief incidents in August 2026, including elevated error rates on August 10 and 11 plus warnings for free-tier conversations on the 13th and ongoing GPT-5.6 Terra response issues on the 14th–15th.** These have been short-lived, quickly mitigated, and often limited in scope, which aligns with the market’s strong 71.5% implied probability for fewer than three qualifying outage days. Traders appear to view most recent events as non-qualifying “elevated errors” or investigations rather than the partial or full outages tracked on status.openai.com. High uptime across APIs and services (99.67%+ recently reported) reinforces expectations of limited further disruptions through the month’s end. The 10% odds each for exactly three, four, or five days reflect the possibility of additional incidents, while the low 5% for six or more captures the historical rarity of prolonged downtime for the platform.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,745End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**OpenAI’s ChatGPT has seen several brief incidents in August 2026, including elevated error rates on August 10 and 11 plus warnings for free-tier conversations on the 13th and ongoing GPT-5.6 Terra response issues on the 14th–15th.** These have been short-lived, quickly mitigated, and often limited in scope, which aligns with the market’s strong 71.5% implied probability for fewer than three qualifying outage days. Traders appear to view most recent events as non-qualifying “elevated errors” or investigations rather than the partial or full outages tracked on status.openai.com. High uptime across APIs and services (99.67%+ recently reported) reinforces expectations of limited further disruptions through the month’s end. The 10% odds each for exactly three, four, or five days reflect the possibility of additional incidents, while the low 5% for six or more captures the historical rarity of prolonged downtime for the platform.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions