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icon for Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
Tech·AI

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?

icon for Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
Tech·AI

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?

Aug 31

Sep 30

Oct 31

Aug 31

Sep 30

Oct 31

Anthropic 72%

OpenAI 28%

Alibaba 8%

MiniMax 4.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Anthropic 72%

OpenAI 28%

Alibaba 8%

MiniMax 4.0%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$977 Vol.

72%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$235 Vol.

28%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$40 Vol.

8%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$122 Vol.

4%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$156 Vol.

4%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$102 Vol.

4%

icon for Microsoft

Microsoft

$155 Vol.

4%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$69 Vol.

4%

icon for Xiaomi

Xiaomi

$99 Vol.

4%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$160 Vol.

3%

icon for Tencent

Tencent

$160 Vol.

3%

icon for Google

Google

$102 Vol.

3%

icon for Amazon

Amazon

$181 Vol.

3%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$89 Vol.

3%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$89 Vol.

3%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$102 Vol.

3%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$99 Vol.

3%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$122 Vol.

3%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$156 Vol.

2%

icon for Meta

Meta

$110 Vol.

2%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$110 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 66% implied probability for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October 2026, driven by its Claude Fable 5 and related Opus-class models posting the highest scores on the benchmark's latest June 2026 refresh and comparable leaderboards such as BenchAlign. These large language models demonstrate superior results in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks that align closely with LiveBench's contamination-resistant design. OpenAI trails at 34% amid strong but secondary GPT-5.6 Sol performance, while Chinese labs and other competitors remain below 5% due to limited recent gains on the same metrics. Key upcoming catalysts include potential September or October model updates from both Anthropic and OpenAI that could shift the leaderboard before resolution.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$3,434
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 66% implied probability for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October 2026, driven by its Claude Fable 5 and related Opus-class models posting the highest scores on the benchmark's latest June 2026 refresh and comparable leaderboards such as BenchAlign. These large language models demonstrate superior results in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks that align closely with LiveBench's contamination-resistant design. OpenAI trails at 34% amid strong but secondary GPT-5.6 Sol performance, while Chinese labs and other competitors remain below 5% due to limited recent gains on the same metrics. Key upcoming catalysts include potential September or October model updates from both Anthropic and OpenAI that could shift the leaderboard before resolution.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$3,434
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Related

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Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 72%, followed by "OpenAI" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?" is "Anthropic" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "OpenAI" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.