Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 in June and July 2026 have driven the 85.5% implied probability, as these models currently top multiple leaderboards with state-of-the-art scores on benchmarks such as coding, reasoning, and long-context tasks. The company’s focus on adaptive thinking, million-token context windows, and agentic capabilities has strengthened its edge over competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google’s Gemini variants remain close but trail in composite rankings, while lower-probability names reflect limited recent breakthroughs. With resolution two months away, further model updates or benchmark shifts could still influence trader consensus before October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 86%
Google 6.0%
SpaceXAI 4.8%
OpenAI 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
86%
6%
SpaceXAI
5%
OpenAI
5%
Meituan
2%
Microsoft
2%
Mistral
2%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
Thinky
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 6.0%
SpaceXAI 4.8%
OpenAI 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,015 Vol.
86%
$175 Vol.
6%
SpaceXAI
$289 Vol.
5%
OpenAI
$180 Vol.
5%
Meituan
$195 Vol.
2%
Microsoft
$160 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$174 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$237 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$174 Vol.
1%
Meta
$157 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$175 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$197 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$154 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$207 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$187 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$174 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$187 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$187 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$187 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$187 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$145 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 in June and July 2026 have driven the 85.5% implied probability, as these models currently top multiple leaderboards with state-of-the-art scores on benchmarks such as coding, reasoning, and long-context tasks. The company’s focus on adaptive thinking, million-token context windows, and agentic capabilities has strengthened its edge over competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google’s Gemini variants remain close but trail in composite rankings, while lower-probability names reflect limited recent breakthroughs. With resolution two months away, further model updates or benchmark shifts could still influence trader consensus before October.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$7,742End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 in June and July 2026 have driven the 85.5% implied probability, as these models currently top multiple leaderboards with state-of-the-art scores on benchmarks such as coding, reasoning, and long-context tasks. The company’s focus on adaptive thinking, million-token context windows, and agentic capabilities has strengthened its edge over competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google’s Gemini variants remain close but trail in composite rankings, while lower-probability names reflect limited recent breakthroughs. With resolution two months away, further model updates or benchmark shifts could still influence trader consensus before October.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$7,742End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 in June and July 2026 have driven the 85.5% implied probability, as these models currently top multiple leaderboards with state-of-the-art scores on benchmarks such as coding, reasoning, and long-context tasks. The company’s focus on adaptive thinking, million-token context windows, and agentic capabilities has strengthened its edge over competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and Google’s Gemini variants remain close but trail in composite rankings, while lower-probability names reflect limited recent breakthroughs. With resolution two months away, further model updates or benchmark shifts could still influence trader consensus before October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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