Google's leading 41.5% implied probability reflects its Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models topping multiple 2026 text-to-video arenas and blind-vote leaderboards through superior cinematic fidelity, native audio synchronization, and prompt adherence. Close competition from Luma AI, Meta's Muse Video, and ByteDance's Seedance 2.5—bolstered by July multimodal editing and longer-clip capabilities—keeps the field fragmented, with frequent releases and rapid benchmark shifts preventing any single leader. Traders weigh access tiers, integration with production tools, and consistency metrics as key differentiators ahead of potential late-August or September model updates that could alter relative standings by resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLuma AI 28%
Meta 26%
Genmo AI 16.0%
ByteDance 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Luma AI
22%
Meta
26%
Genmo AI
8%
ByteDance
11%
SpaceXAI
10%
Runway
9%
Pixverse
5%
Kandinsky
5%
MiniMax
4%
KlingAI
4%
Pruna
4%
Tencent
4%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
4%
OpenAI
3%
Lightricks
2%
Pika
1%
42%
Luma AI 28%
Meta 26%
Genmo AI 16.0%
ByteDance 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Luma AI
$71 Vol.
22%
Meta
$51 Vol.
26%
Genmo AI
$71 Vol.
8%
ByteDance
$51 Vol.
11%
SpaceXAI
$51 Vol.
10%
Runway
$51 Vol.
9%
Pixverse
$56 Vol.
5%
Kandinsky
$56 Vol.
5%
MiniMax
$114 Vol.
4%
KlingAI
$124 Vol.
4%
Pruna
$103 Vol.
4%
Tencent
$56 Vol.
4%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$51 Vol.
4%
OpenAI
$56 Vol.
3%
Lightricks
$118 Vol.
2%
Pika
$149 Vol.
1%
$1,554 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's leading 41.5% implied probability reflects its Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models topping multiple 2026 text-to-video arenas and blind-vote leaderboards through superior cinematic fidelity, native audio synchronization, and prompt adherence. Close competition from Luma AI, Meta's Muse Video, and ByteDance's Seedance 2.5—bolstered by July multimodal editing and longer-clip capabilities—keeps the field fragmented, with frequent releases and rapid benchmark shifts preventing any single leader. Traders weigh access tiers, integration with production tools, and consistency metrics as key differentiators ahead of potential late-August or September model updates that could alter relative standings by resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$2,781End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's leading 41.5% implied probability reflects its Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models topping multiple 2026 text-to-video arenas and blind-vote leaderboards through superior cinematic fidelity, native audio synchronization, and prompt adherence. Close competition from Luma AI, Meta's Muse Video, and ByteDance's Seedance 2.5—bolstered by July multimodal editing and longer-clip capabilities—keeps the field fragmented, with frequent releases and rapid benchmark shifts preventing any single leader. Traders weigh access tiers, integration with production tools, and consistency metrics as key differentiators ahead of potential late-August or September model updates that could alter relative standings by resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$2,781End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's leading 41.5% implied probability reflects its Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models topping multiple 2026 text-to-video arenas and blind-vote leaderboards through superior cinematic fidelity, native audio synchronization, and prompt adherence. Close competition from Luma AI, Meta's Muse Video, and ByteDance's Seedance 2.5—bolstered by July multimodal editing and longer-clip capabilities—keeps the field fragmented, with frequent releases and rapid benchmark shifts preventing any single leader. Traders weigh access tiers, integration with production tools, and consistency metrics as key differentiators ahead of potential late-August or September model updates that could alter relative standings by resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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