Traders assign a 72.9% implied probability to no Gemini Pro model release by August 31 because Google has prioritized rapid iteration on Flash variants, with Gemini 3.7 Flash reaching general availability on August 13 and earlier 3.6/3.5 Flash updates throughout July. Pro-tier flagship models follow longer development cycles focused on advanced reasoning benchmarks rather than frequent drops. No official announcements, developer previews, or credible supply-chain signals point to an imminent Pro launch in the remaining August window, while historical patterns show major Pro updates spaced months apart. This leaves low single-digit odds on specific mid-to-late August dates driven by speculation rather than confirmed timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo release by August 31 72.8%
August 31 6.6%
August 19 2.9%
August 26 2.9%
$252,606 Vol.
$252,606 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
August 14
1%
August 15
<1%
August 16
<1%
August 17
1%
August 18
2%
August 19
3%
August 20
2%
August 21
<1%
August 22
1%
August 23
2%
August 24
1%
August 25
2%
August 26
3%
August 27
<1%
August 28
1%
August 29
<1%
August 30
1%
August 31
7%
No release by August 31
73%
No release by August 31 72.8%
August 31 6.6%
August 19 2.9%
August 26 2.9%
$252,606 Vol.
$252,606 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
August 14
$3,980 Vol.
1%
August 15
$2,293 Vol.
<1%
August 16
$2,254 Vol.
<1%
August 17
$3,664 Vol.
1%
August 18
$3,836 Vol.
2%
August 19
$3,088 Vol.
3%
August 20
$2,646 Vol.
2%
August 21
$1,884 Vol.
<1%
August 22
$2,366 Vol.
1%
August 23
$1,740 Vol.
2%
August 24
$4,263 Vol.
1%
August 25
$5,149 Vol.
2%
August 26
$3,892 Vol.
3%
August 27
$8,316 Vol.
<1%
August 28
$3,756 Vol.
1%
August 29
$4,464 Vol.
<1%
August 30
$2,074 Vol.
1%
August 31
$6,292 Vol.
7%
No release by August 31
$42,179 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 72.9% implied probability to no Gemini Pro model release by August 31 because Google has prioritized rapid iteration on Flash variants, with Gemini 3.7 Flash reaching general availability on August 13 and earlier 3.6/3.5 Flash updates throughout July. Pro-tier flagship models follow longer development cycles focused on advanced reasoning benchmarks rather than frequent drops. No official announcements, developer previews, or credible supply-chain signals point to an imminent Pro launch in the remaining August window, while historical patterns show major Pro updates spaced months apart. This leaves low single-digit odds on specific mid-to-late August dates driven by speculation rather than confirmed timelines.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volume
$252,606End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 72.9% implied probability to no Gemini Pro model release by August 31 because Google has prioritized rapid iteration on Flash variants, with Gemini 3.7 Flash reaching general availability on August 13 and earlier 3.6/3.5 Flash updates throughout July. Pro-tier flagship models follow longer development cycles focused on advanced reasoning benchmarks rather than frequent drops. No official announcements, developer previews, or credible supply-chain signals point to an imminent Pro launch in the remaining August window, while historical patterns show major Pro updates spaced months apart. This leaves low single-digit odds on specific mid-to-late August dates driven by speculation rather than confirmed timelines.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$252,606End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 72.9% implied probability to no Gemini Pro model release by August 31 because Google has prioritized rapid iteration on Flash variants, with Gemini 3.7 Flash reaching general availability on August 13 and earlier 3.6/3.5 Flash updates throughout July. Pro-tier flagship models follow longer development cycles focused on advanced reasoning benchmarks rather than frequent drops. No official announcements, developer previews, or credible supply-chain signals point to an imminent Pro launch in the remaining August window, while historical patterns show major Pro updates spaced months apart. This leaves low single-digit odds on specific mid-to-late August dates driven by speculation rather than confirmed timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions