Alibaba's Qwen3 series, including the recent Qwen3.8-Max release in early August 2026, has driven strong trader consensus around its implied 78% probability of finishing third in Text Arena Math. The models' hybrid thinking modes and performance on math benchmarks like AIME and MATH have improved competitive positioning among Chinese AI labs, with demonstrated gains in multi-step reasoning and agentic tasks. This contrasts with lower odds for OpenAI (1.5%), Google (18.3%), and Anthropic, whose frontier models lead overall arenas but may trail in this specific math-focused Text Arena evaluation. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-August leaderboard updates or new model drops that could shift rankings before resolution, underscoring how benchmark results and release timing shape skin-in-the-game sentiment in these fast-moving AI markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlibaba 78%
Google 18.3%
OpenAI 1.6%
Meta 1.1%
$40,887 Vol.
$40,887 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Alibaba
78%
18%
OpenAI
2%
Meta
1%
Anthropic
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Baidu
1%
Moonshot
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Mistral
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba 78%
Google 18.3%
OpenAI 1.6%
Meta 1.1%
$40,887 Vol.
$40,887 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Alibaba
$10,370 Vol.
78%
$7,705 Vol.
18%
OpenAI
$5,228 Vol.
2%
Meta
$1,357 Vol.
1%
Anthropic
$909 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$2,380 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$977 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$972 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$1,147 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,071 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$969 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$578 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$1,114 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,009 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,347 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$904 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$730 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$790 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$579 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$751 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba's Qwen3 series, including the recent Qwen3.8-Max release in early August 2026, has driven strong trader consensus around its implied 78% probability of finishing third in Text Arena Math. The models' hybrid thinking modes and performance on math benchmarks like AIME and MATH have improved competitive positioning among Chinese AI labs, with demonstrated gains in multi-step reasoning and agentic tasks. This contrasts with lower odds for OpenAI (1.5%), Google (18.3%), and Anthropic, whose frontier models lead overall arenas but may trail in this specific math-focused Text Arena evaluation. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-August leaderboard updates or new model drops that could shift rankings before resolution, underscoring how benchmark results and release timing shape skin-in-the-game sentiment in these fast-moving AI markets.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Volume
$40,887End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba's Qwen3 series, including the recent Qwen3.8-Max release in early August 2026, has driven strong trader consensus around its implied 78% probability of finishing third in Text Arena Math. The models' hybrid thinking modes and performance on math benchmarks like AIME and MATH have improved competitive positioning among Chinese AI labs, with demonstrated gains in multi-step reasoning and agentic tasks. This contrasts with lower odds for OpenAI (1.5%), Google (18.3%), and Anthropic, whose frontier models lead overall arenas but may trail in this specific math-focused Text Arena evaluation. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-August leaderboard updates or new model drops that could shift rankings before resolution, underscoring how benchmark results and release timing shape skin-in-the-game sentiment in these fast-moving AI markets.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$40,887End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba's Qwen3 series, including the recent Qwen3.8-Max release in early August 2026, has driven strong trader consensus around its implied 78% probability of finishing third in Text Arena Math. The models' hybrid thinking modes and performance on math benchmarks like AIME and MATH have improved competitive positioning among Chinese AI labs, with demonstrated gains in multi-step reasoning and agentic tasks. This contrasts with lower odds for OpenAI (1.5%), Google (18.3%), and Anthropic, whose frontier models lead overall arenas but may trail in this specific math-focused Text Arena evaluation. Key upcoming catalysts include any late-August leaderboard updates or new model drops that could shift rankings before resolution, underscoring how benchmark results and release timing shape skin-in-the-game sentiment in these fast-moving AI markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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