Traders assign Google the highest implied probability at 78% for second place in Text Arena Math by end of August, driven by its consistent performance on mathematical reasoning benchmarks and large language model capabilities relative to competitors. Lower odds for OpenAI at 4.5%, Anthropic at 4%, and others reflect limited recent shifts from model releases or updates that would alter leaderboard positioning. The market's near-term resolution heightens focus on any final benchmark data or capability demonstrations in the coming weeks, underscoring how trader capital aggregates assessments of AI lab progress amid evolving competitive dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 78%
Alibaba 12.0%
OpenAI 4.5%
Anthropic 4.0%
$61,135 Vol.
$61,135 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
78%
Alibaba
12%
OpenAI
5%
Anthropic
4%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 78%
Alibaba 12.0%
OpenAI 4.5%
Anthropic 4.0%
$61,135 Vol.
$61,135 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
$22,661 Vol.
78%
Alibaba
$9,975 Vol.
12%
OpenAI
$2,264 Vol.
5%
Anthropic
$8,328 Vol.
4%
Meta
$2,074 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,783 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$1,610 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,119 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,397 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,696 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$804 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,415 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$500 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$709 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$556 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$554 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$915 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$577 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$667 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Google the highest implied probability at 78% for second place in Text Arena Math by end of August, driven by its consistent performance on mathematical reasoning benchmarks and large language model capabilities relative to competitors. Lower odds for OpenAI at 4.5%, Anthropic at 4%, and others reflect limited recent shifts from model releases or updates that would alter leaderboard positioning. The market's near-term resolution heightens focus on any final benchmark data or capability demonstrations in the coming weeks, underscoring how trader capital aggregates assessments of AI lab progress amid evolving competitive dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:43 PM ET
Volume
$61,135End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Google the highest implied probability at 78% for second place in Text Arena Math by end of August, driven by its consistent performance on mathematical reasoning benchmarks and large language model capabilities relative to competitors. Lower odds for OpenAI at 4.5%, Anthropic at 4%, and others reflect limited recent shifts from model releases or updates that would alter leaderboard positioning. The market's near-term resolution heightens focus on any final benchmark data or capability demonstrations in the coming weeks, underscoring how trader capital aggregates assessments of AI lab progress amid evolving competitive dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$61,135End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Google the highest implied probability at 78% for second place in Text Arena Math by end of August, driven by its consistent performance on mathematical reasoning benchmarks and large language model capabilities relative to competitors. Lower odds for OpenAI at 4.5%, Anthropic at 4%, and others reflect limited recent shifts from model releases or updates that would alter leaderboard positioning. The market's near-term resolution heightens focus on any final benchmark data or capability demonstrations in the coming weeks, underscoring how trader capital aggregates assessments of AI lab progress amid evolving competitive dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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