Claude Opus 5, released July 24, 2026, drives the overwhelming market consensus favoring its max and high configurations, as the model delivers frontier-level reasoning, agentic capabilities, and long-horizon performance close to the pricier Fable 5 while serving as the default on Claude Max plans. Its 1-million-token context window, default thinking mode, full effort ladder including max settings, and reduced safety interventions have positioned Opus 5 variants ahead of prior Opus iterations and competitors in recent benchmarks for coding, deep reasoning, and general tasks. With no major new releases or capability shifts reported in the past two weeks, trader sentiment reflects stability around these configurations ahead of the August 17 resolution, though last-minute benchmark updates or access changes could still influence final outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-opus-5-max 84.3%
claude-opus-5-high 11.7%
Other 2.6%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$24,473 Vol.
$24,473 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
84%
claude-opus-5-high
12%
Other
3%
claude-opus-4-6
1%
claude-fable-5
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
<1%
claude-opus-5-max 84.3%
claude-opus-5-high 11.7%
Other 2.6%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$24,473 Vol.
$24,473 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
$16,656 Vol.
84%
claude-opus-5-high
$1,474 Vol.
12%
Other
$1,188 Vol.
3%
claude-opus-4-6
$941 Vol.
1%
claude-fable-5
$893 Vol.
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$3,320 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5, released July 24, 2026, drives the overwhelming market consensus favoring its max and high configurations, as the model delivers frontier-level reasoning, agentic capabilities, and long-horizon performance close to the pricier Fable 5 while serving as the default on Claude Max plans. Its 1-million-token context window, default thinking mode, full effort ladder including max settings, and reduced safety interventions have positioned Opus 5 variants ahead of prior Opus iterations and competitors in recent benchmarks for coding, deep reasoning, and general tasks. With no major new releases or capability shifts reported in the past two weeks, trader sentiment reflects stability around these configurations ahead of the August 17 resolution, though last-minute benchmark updates or access changes could still influence final outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$24,473End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5, released July 24, 2026, drives the overwhelming market consensus favoring its max and high configurations, as the model delivers frontier-level reasoning, agentic capabilities, and long-horizon performance close to the pricier Fable 5 while serving as the default on Claude Max plans. Its 1-million-token context window, default thinking mode, full effort ladder including max settings, and reduced safety interventions have positioned Opus 5 variants ahead of prior Opus iterations and competitors in recent benchmarks for coding, deep reasoning, and general tasks. With no major new releases or capability shifts reported in the past two weeks, trader sentiment reflects stability around these configurations ahead of the August 17 resolution, though last-minute benchmark updates or access changes could still influence final outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$24,473End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Opus 5, released July 24, 2026, drives the overwhelming market consensus favoring its max and high configurations, as the model delivers frontier-level reasoning, agentic capabilities, and long-horizon performance close to the pricier Fable 5 while serving as the default on Claude Max plans. Its 1-million-token context window, default thinking mode, full effort ladder including max settings, and reduced safety interventions have positioned Opus 5 variants ahead of prior Opus iterations and competitors in recent benchmarks for coding, deep reasoning, and general tasks. With no major new releases or capability shifts reported in the past two weeks, trader sentiment reflects stability around these configurations ahead of the August 17 resolution, though last-minute benchmark updates or access changes could still influence final outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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