Anthropic holds an 85% market-implied probability of leading LiveBench overall at end of August, driven by its Claude Fable 5 Max Effort model topping the latest contamination-free leaderboard (June 2026 release) with an 83.0 overall score, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0. This positioning stems from Anthropic’s recent frontier releases emphasizing agentic coding, reasoning, and long-context performance, outpacing competitors on the benchmark’s objective tasks across categories like mathematics and instruction following. With the next LiveBench refresh unlikely before September and no major model updates reported in the past two weeks, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s sustained edge in demonstrated capabilities. OpenAI trails at 11.5% amid narrower gaps on secondary metrics, while lower-odds entrants like Meta and Google show limited recent benchmark gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 85%
OpenAI 12%
Meta 3.8%
Tencent 3.4%
$17,037 Vol.
$17,037 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
85%
OpenAI
12%
Meta
4%
Tencent
3%
DeepSeek
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
StepFun
1%
ByteDance
1%
Mistral
1%
Alibaba
1%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 85%
OpenAI 12%
Meta 3.8%
Tencent 3.4%
$17,037 Vol.
$17,037 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$6,289 Vol.
85%
OpenAI
$1,778 Vol.
12%
Meta
$467 Vol.
4%
Tencent
$443 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$597 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$503 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$518 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$453 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$539 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$492 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$507 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$462 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$440 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$433 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$461 Vol.
<1%
$419 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$413 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$423 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$424 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$600 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$374 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an 85% market-implied probability of leading LiveBench overall at end of August, driven by its Claude Fable 5 Max Effort model topping the latest contamination-free leaderboard (June 2026 release) with an 83.0 overall score, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0. This positioning stems from Anthropic’s recent frontier releases emphasizing agentic coding, reasoning, and long-context performance, outpacing competitors on the benchmark’s objective tasks across categories like mathematics and instruction following. With the next LiveBench refresh unlikely before September and no major model updates reported in the past two weeks, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s sustained edge in demonstrated capabilities. OpenAI trails at 11.5% amid narrower gaps on secondary metrics, while lower-odds entrants like Meta and Google show limited recent benchmark gains.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$17,037End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an 85% market-implied probability of leading LiveBench overall at end of August, driven by its Claude Fable 5 Max Effort model topping the latest contamination-free leaderboard (June 2026 release) with an 83.0 overall score, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0. This positioning stems from Anthropic’s recent frontier releases emphasizing agentic coding, reasoning, and long-context performance, outpacing competitors on the benchmark’s objective tasks across categories like mathematics and instruction following. With the next LiveBench refresh unlikely before September and no major model updates reported in the past two weeks, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s sustained edge in demonstrated capabilities. OpenAI trails at 11.5% amid narrower gaps on secondary metrics, while lower-odds entrants like Meta and Google show limited recent benchmark gains.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$17,037End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an 85% market-implied probability of leading LiveBench overall at end of August, driven by its Claude Fable 5 Max Effort model topping the latest contamination-free leaderboard (June 2026 release) with an 83.0 overall score, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0. This positioning stems from Anthropic’s recent frontier releases emphasizing agentic coding, reasoning, and long-context performance, outpacing competitors on the benchmark’s objective tasks across categories like mathematics and instruction following. With the next LiveBench refresh unlikely before September and no major model updates reported in the past two weeks, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s sustained edge in demonstrated capabilities. OpenAI trails at 11.5% amid narrower gaps on secondary metrics, while lower-odds entrants like Meta and Google show limited recent benchmark gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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