Anthropic holds the strongest position at 60% implied probability, driven by its Claude Fable 5 Max Effort model topping the latest LiveBench-2026-06-25 release with an 83.0 overall score across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This edge stems from Anthropic's rapid cadence of frontier large language model releases emphasizing capability gains on contamination-free benchmarks. OpenAI trails at 28.5% as its GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 variants post competitive but lower scores around 81%, narrowing the gap on specific subtasks. Multiple other labs sit near 50% amid uncertainty over upcoming model updates or the next LiveBench refresh before September's end, with lower-probability contenders like MiniMax and DeepSeek reflecting limited demonstrated performance at current frontier levels. Traders weigh these real-time benchmark results heavily given LiveBench's objective evaluation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 67%
OpenAI 28%
MiniMax 1.0%
Microsoft 1.0%
$18,882 Vol.
$18,882 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
60%
OpenAI
28%
MiniMax
1%
Microsoft
1%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Meta
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Anthropic 67%
OpenAI 28%
MiniMax 1.0%
Microsoft 1.0%
$18,882 Vol.
$18,882 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$5,476 Vol.
60%
OpenAI
$3,385 Vol.
28%
MiniMax
$545 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$495 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$565 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$510 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$629 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$488 Vol.
1%
Meta
$505 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$555 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$482 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$475 Vol.
<1%
$532 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$640 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$548 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$471 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$558 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$435 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$486 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$625 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$475 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the strongest position at 60% implied probability, driven by its Claude Fable 5 Max Effort model topping the latest LiveBench-2026-06-25 release with an 83.0 overall score across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This edge stems from Anthropic's rapid cadence of frontier large language model releases emphasizing capability gains on contamination-free benchmarks. OpenAI trails at 28.5% as its GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 variants post competitive but lower scores around 81%, narrowing the gap on specific subtasks. Multiple other labs sit near 50% amid uncertainty over upcoming model updates or the next LiveBench refresh before September's end, with lower-probability contenders like MiniMax and DeepSeek reflecting limited demonstrated performance at current frontier levels. Traders weigh these real-time benchmark results heavily given LiveBench's objective evaluation.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$18,882End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the strongest position at 60% implied probability, driven by its Claude Fable 5 Max Effort model topping the latest LiveBench-2026-06-25 release with an 83.0 overall score across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This edge stems from Anthropic's rapid cadence of frontier large language model releases emphasizing capability gains on contamination-free benchmarks. OpenAI trails at 28.5% as its GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 variants post competitive but lower scores around 81%, narrowing the gap on specific subtasks. Multiple other labs sit near 50% amid uncertainty over upcoming model updates or the next LiveBench refresh before September's end, with lower-probability contenders like MiniMax and DeepSeek reflecting limited demonstrated performance at current frontier levels. Traders weigh these real-time benchmark results heavily given LiveBench's objective evaluation.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$18,882End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the strongest position at 60% implied probability, driven by its Claude Fable 5 Max Effort model topping the latest LiveBench-2026-06-25 release with an 83.0 overall score across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This edge stems from Anthropic's rapid cadence of frontier large language model releases emphasizing capability gains on contamination-free benchmarks. OpenAI trails at 28.5% as its GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 variants post competitive but lower scores around 81%, narrowing the gap on specific subtasks. Multiple other labs sit near 50% amid uncertainty over upcoming model updates or the next LiveBench refresh before September's end, with lower-probability contenders like MiniMax and DeepSeek reflecting limited demonstrated performance at current frontier levels. Traders weigh these real-time benchmark results heavily given LiveBench's objective evaluation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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