Anthropic's strong 92.5% market-implied odds reflect its Claude Fable 5 and related Opus models currently topping LiveBench's Coding category, driven by superior performance on the benchmark's contamination-free tasks that test real-world code generation, debugging, and agentic workflows. Recent releases have emphasized coding-centric capabilities, including larger context windows and optimized reasoning, outpacing competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5 variants in the latest leaderboard snapshots. With resolution just weeks away, this positions Anthropic as the clear consensus leader among traders. A late-August model update or fine-tune from OpenAI or another lab that demonstrably surpasses the current Claude entries on LiveBench's specific metrics could still narrow the gap, though such a shift appears unlikely given the short timeline and recent trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 91%
OpenAI 7.8%
SpaceXAI 1.3%
Google <1%
$36,721 Vol.
$36,721 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
91%
OpenAI
8%
SpaceXAI
1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta
<1%
Anthropic 91%
OpenAI 7.8%
SpaceXAI 1.3%
Google <1%
$36,721 Vol.
$36,721 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$14,890 Vol.
91%
OpenAI
$4,946 Vol.
8%
SpaceXAI
$2,053 Vol.
1%
$2,102 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$466 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,639 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,760 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$471 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$818 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$672 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$421 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$589 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$441 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,196 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$656 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,212 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$366 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$465 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$372 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$581 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$604 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's strong 92.5% market-implied odds reflect its Claude Fable 5 and related Opus models currently topping LiveBench's Coding category, driven by superior performance on the benchmark's contamination-free tasks that test real-world code generation, debugging, and agentic workflows. Recent releases have emphasized coding-centric capabilities, including larger context windows and optimized reasoning, outpacing competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5 variants in the latest leaderboard snapshots. With resolution just weeks away, this positions Anthropic as the clear consensus leader among traders. A late-August model update or fine-tune from OpenAI or another lab that demonstrably surpasses the current Claude entries on LiveBench's specific metrics could still narrow the gap, though such a shift appears unlikely given the short timeline and recent trends.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$36,721End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's strong 92.5% market-implied odds reflect its Claude Fable 5 and related Opus models currently topping LiveBench's Coding category, driven by superior performance on the benchmark's contamination-free tasks that test real-world code generation, debugging, and agentic workflows. Recent releases have emphasized coding-centric capabilities, including larger context windows and optimized reasoning, outpacing competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5 variants in the latest leaderboard snapshots. With resolution just weeks away, this positions Anthropic as the clear consensus leader among traders. A late-August model update or fine-tune from OpenAI or another lab that demonstrably surpasses the current Claude entries on LiveBench's specific metrics could still narrow the gap, though such a shift appears unlikely given the short timeline and recent trends.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$36,721End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's strong 92.5% market-implied odds reflect its Claude Fable 5 and related Opus models currently topping LiveBench's Coding category, driven by superior performance on the benchmark's contamination-free tasks that test real-world code generation, debugging, and agentic workflows. Recent releases have emphasized coding-centric capabilities, including larger context windows and optimized reasoning, outpacing competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5 variants in the latest leaderboard snapshots. With resolution just weeks away, this positions Anthropic as the clear consensus leader among traders. A late-August model update or fine-tune from OpenAI or another lab that demonstrably surpasses the current Claude entries on LiveBench's specific metrics could still narrow the gap, though such a shift appears unlikely given the short timeline and recent trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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