OpenAI holds the leading 64% implied probability due to its GPT-5.6 variants currently posting the highest LiveBench Mathematics scores among frontier models, slightly ahead of Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 series at 96.2 versus 96.0. Recent releases of high-effort reasoning models from both labs have kept scores tightly clustered, while lower-probability names like Nvidia, Mistral, and Meta reflect limited recent math-specific gains on the contamination-resistant benchmark. With six weeks until end-September resolution, traders are pricing in the potential for further OpenAI updates or competitive jumps from Anthropic and others ahead of the next LiveBench refresh.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 64%
Anthropic 28%
Nvidia 1.9%
Moonshot 1.6%
$21,228 Vol.
$21,228 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
64%
Anthropic
29%
Nvidia
2%
Moonshot
2%
Thinky
1%
Microsoft
1%
Mistral
1%
Tencent
1%
1%
Amazon
1%
MiniMax
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meituan
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
SpaceXAI
6%
OpenAI 64%
Anthropic 28%
Nvidia 1.9%
Moonshot 1.6%
$21,228 Vol.
$21,228 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
$7,423 Vol.
64%
Anthropic
$3,276 Vol.
29%
Nvidia
$615 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$561 Vol.
2%
Thinky
$576 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$511 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$580 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$565 Vol.
1%
$556 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$617 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$533 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$573 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$567 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$536 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$556 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$516 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$511 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$508 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$531 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$516 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$599 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI holds the leading 64% implied probability due to its GPT-5.6 variants currently posting the highest LiveBench Mathematics scores among frontier models, slightly ahead of Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 series at 96.2 versus 96.0. Recent releases of high-effort reasoning models from both labs have kept scores tightly clustered, while lower-probability names like Nvidia, Mistral, and Meta reflect limited recent math-specific gains on the contamination-resistant benchmark. With six weeks until end-September resolution, traders are pricing in the potential for further OpenAI updates or competitive jumps from Anthropic and others ahead of the next LiveBench refresh.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$21,228End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI holds the leading 64% implied probability due to its GPT-5.6 variants currently posting the highest LiveBench Mathematics scores among frontier models, slightly ahead of Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 series at 96.2 versus 96.0. Recent releases of high-effort reasoning models from both labs have kept scores tightly clustered, while lower-probability names like Nvidia, Mistral, and Meta reflect limited recent math-specific gains on the contamination-resistant benchmark. With six weeks until end-September resolution, traders are pricing in the potential for further OpenAI updates or competitive jumps from Anthropic and others ahead of the next LiveBench refresh.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$21,228End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI holds the leading 64% implied probability due to its GPT-5.6 variants currently posting the highest LiveBench Mathematics scores among frontier models, slightly ahead of Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 series at 96.2 versus 96.0. Recent releases of high-effort reasoning models from both labs have kept scores tightly clustered, while lower-probability names like Nvidia, Mistral, and Meta reflect limited recent math-specific gains on the contamination-resistant benchmark. With six weeks until end-September resolution, traders are pricing in the potential for further OpenAI updates or competitive jumps from Anthropic and others ahead of the next LiveBench refresh.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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