OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and related variants hold a commanding lead on LiveBench Mathematics, posting subcategory scores near 96% that exceed current Claude and other frontier models by clear margins on the live, contamination-resistant benchmark. Recent model releases and high-effort inference modes have reinforced trader consensus around OpenAI's edge in mathematical reasoning capabilities. With resolution just weeks away, this 91% implied probability reflects sustained benchmark dominance rather than speculation. A late-August model update or capability jump from Anthropic, or shifts in LiveBench's rotating math questions, represent the primary realistic paths that could narrow the gap before final scoring.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 91%
Anthropic 7%
Thinky <1%
Meta <1%
$17,300 Vol.
$17,300 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
91%
Anthropic
7%
Thinky
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
OpenAI 91%
Anthropic 7%
Thinky <1%
Meta <1%
$17,300 Vol.
$17,300 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
$3,574 Vol.
91%
Anthropic
$2,178 Vol.
7%
Thinky
$712 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$611 Vol.
<1%
$633 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$976 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$767 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$728 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$382 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$616 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$376 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$446 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$671 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$569 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$582 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$696 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$582 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$682 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$568 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$488 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$463 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and related variants hold a commanding lead on LiveBench Mathematics, posting subcategory scores near 96% that exceed current Claude and other frontier models by clear margins on the live, contamination-resistant benchmark. Recent model releases and high-effort inference modes have reinforced trader consensus around OpenAI's edge in mathematical reasoning capabilities. With resolution just weeks away, this 91% implied probability reflects sustained benchmark dominance rather than speculation. A late-August model update or capability jump from Anthropic, or shifts in LiveBench's rotating math questions, represent the primary realistic paths that could narrow the gap before final scoring.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$17,300End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and related variants hold a commanding lead on LiveBench Mathematics, posting subcategory scores near 96% that exceed current Claude and other frontier models by clear margins on the live, contamination-resistant benchmark. Recent model releases and high-effort inference modes have reinforced trader consensus around OpenAI's edge in mathematical reasoning capabilities. With resolution just weeks away, this 91% implied probability reflects sustained benchmark dominance rather than speculation. A late-August model update or capability jump from Anthropic, or shifts in LiveBench's rotating math questions, represent the primary realistic paths that could narrow the gap before final scoring.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$17,300End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and related variants hold a commanding lead on LiveBench Mathematics, posting subcategory scores near 96% that exceed current Claude and other frontier models by clear margins on the live, contamination-resistant benchmark. Recent model releases and high-effort inference modes have reinforced trader consensus around OpenAI's edge in mathematical reasoning capabilities. With resolution just weeks away, this 91% implied probability reflects sustained benchmark dominance rather than speculation. A late-August model update or capability jump from Anthropic, or shifts in LiveBench's rotating math questions, represent the primary realistic paths that could narrow the gap before final scoring.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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