Skip to main content
icon for University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026
Economy·Consumer

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026

icon for University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026
Economy·Consumer

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026

Aug 28

Aug 28

49.0–51.9 44%

52.0–54.9 27%

55.0–57.9 12%

<49.0 5.7%

Polymarket

$18,822 Vol.

49.0–51.9 44%

52.0–54.9 27%

55.0–57.9 12%

<49.0 5.7%

Polymarket

$18,822 Vol.

<49.0

$878 Vol.

6%

49.0–51.9

$1,681 Vol.

44%

52.0–54.9

$10,501 Vol.

27%

55.0–57.9

$3,488 Vol.

12%

58.0–60.9

$1,046 Vol.

5%

61.0–63.9

$563 Vol.

5%

64.0+

$664 Vol.

3%

This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The preliminary August 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading of 51.0, released August 14 and below economist expectations near 54.5-55, anchors trader positioning with the 49.0–51.9 range holding 44% implied probability for the final print due August 28. Heightened inflation concerns tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions drove the 7.6% month-over-month drop from July's 55.2, pushing year-ahead inflation expectations to 4.3% while only 8% of respondents anticipate income growth outpacing prices. Broad deterioration across current conditions (51.8) and expectations (50.6) components, alongside softening labor market signals and prior revisions to employment data, supports the market's concentration in the low-50s bins while leaving room for typical final adjustments.

This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.

The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.

Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$18,822
End Date
Aug 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:16 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The preliminary August 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading of 51.0, released August 14 and below economist expectations near 54.5-55, anchors trader positioning with the 49.0–51.9 range holding 44% implied probability for the final print due August 28. Heightened inflation concerns tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions drove the 7.6% month-over-month drop from July's 55.2, pushing year-ahead inflation expectations to 4.3% while only 8% of respondents anticipate income growth outpacing prices. Broad deterioration across current conditions (51.8) and expectations (50.6) components, alongside softening labor market signals and prior revisions to employment data, supports the market's concentration in the low-50s bins while leaving room for typical final adjustments.

This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.

The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.

Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$18,822
End Date
Aug 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:16 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Related

icon for Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?

44%
icon for Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?

Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?

30%
icon for Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in August?

Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in August?

24%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "49.0–51.9" at 44%, followed by "52.0–54.9" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026" has generated $18.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026" is "49.0–51.9" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "52.0–54.9" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.