UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 faces headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions, which are pushing CPI inflation toward a 3%+ peak in the second half and squeezing real incomes. Recent quarterly outturns—0.6% QoQ in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2—combined with a loosening labor market (unemployment near 5%) and subdued business surveys, support trader consensus for modest expansion clustered around 0.0–0.3%. Bank of England communications highlight the trade-off between containing second-round inflation effects and supporting activity, with limited rate cuts priced in through year-end. This environment creates balanced probabilities across low-positive and negative outcomes, as any sustained energy price reversal or stronger consumption data could shift the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.2–0.3% 39%
0.0–0.1% 38%
0.4–0.5% 37%
Negative 32%
NEW
NEW
Nov 12, 2026
Negative
32%
0.0–0.1%
38%
0.2–0.3%
39%
0.4–0.5%
37%
0.6–0.7%
32%
0.8–0.9%
6%
1.0%+
6%
0.2–0.3% 39%
0.0–0.1% 38%
0.4–0.5% 37%
Negative 32%
NEW
NEW
Nov 12, 2026
Negative
$0 Vol.
32%
0.0–0.1%
$20 Vol.
38%
0.2–0.3%
$0 Vol.
39%
0.4–0.5%
$0 Vol.
37%
0.6–0.7%
$0 Vol.
32%
0.8–0.9%
$0 Vol.
6%
1.0%+
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 faces headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions, which are pushing CPI inflation toward a 3%+ peak in the second half and squeezing real incomes. Recent quarterly outturns—0.6% QoQ in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2—combined with a loosening labor market (unemployment near 5%) and subdued business surveys, support trader consensus for modest expansion clustered around 0.0–0.3%. Bank of England communications highlight the trade-off between containing second-round inflation effects and supporting activity, with limited rate cuts priced in through year-end. This environment creates balanced probabilities across low-positive and negative outcomes, as any sustained energy price reversal or stronger consumption data could shift the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 faces headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions, which are pushing CPI inflation toward a 3%+ peak in the second half and squeezing real incomes. Recent quarterly outturns—0.6% QoQ in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2—combined with a loosening labor market (unemployment near 5%) and subdued business surveys, support trader consensus for modest expansion clustered around 0.0–0.3%. Bank of England communications highlight the trade-off between containing second-round inflation effects and supporting activity, with limited rate cuts priced in through year-end. This environment creates balanced probabilities across low-positive and negative outcomes, as any sustained energy price reversal or stronger consumption data could shift the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$20End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 faces headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions, which are pushing CPI inflation toward a 3%+ peak in the second half and squeezing real incomes. Recent quarterly outturns—0.6% QoQ in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2—combined with a loosening labor market (unemployment near 5%) and subdued business surveys, support trader consensus for modest expansion clustered around 0.0–0.3%. Bank of England communications highlight the trade-off between containing second-round inflation effects and supporting activity, with limited rate cuts priced in through year-end. This environment creates balanced probabilities across low-positive and negative outcomes, as any sustained energy price reversal or stronger consumption data could shift the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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