Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 and the unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent in June, driven by a 264,000 drop in the labor force amid elevated energy prices, renewed tariffs, and geopolitical tensions including conflict in the Middle East. These developments have reinforced trader focus on labor-market softening signals such as subdued hiring, below-consensus wage growth of just 0.1 percent month-over-month, and structural headwinds including AI adoption and demographic shifts. With the August report due September 4, closely matched probabilities for 4.1–4.3 percent reflect uncertainty over whether the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium persists or if seasonal factors and policy volatility produce a modest rebound or further rise, consistent with historical patterns around 4.1–4.3 percent in similar macro environments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.1% 35%
4.2% 30%
4.3% 28%
4.0% 10%
$11,947 Vol.
$11,947 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
10%
4.1%
35%
4.2%
30%
4.3%
28%
4.4%
2%
4.5%
1%
≥4.6%
1%
4.1% 35%
4.2% 30%
4.3% 28%
4.0% 10%
$11,947 Vol.
$11,947 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
$236 Vol.
<1%
3.9%
$263 Vol.
1%
4.0%
$1,143 Vol.
10%
4.1%
$4,098 Vol.
35%
4.2%
$2,522 Vol.
30%
4.3%
$2,608 Vol.
28%
4.4%
$491 Vol.
2%
4.5%
$288 Vol.
1%
≥4.6%
$297 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 and the unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent in June, driven by a 264,000 drop in the labor force amid elevated energy prices, renewed tariffs, and geopolitical tensions including conflict in the Middle East. These developments have reinforced trader focus on labor-market softening signals such as subdued hiring, below-consensus wage growth of just 0.1 percent month-over-month, and structural headwinds including AI adoption and demographic shifts. With the August report due September 4, closely matched probabilities for 4.1–4.3 percent reflect uncertainty over whether the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium persists or if seasonal factors and policy volatility produce a modest rebound or further rise, consistent with historical patterns around 4.1–4.3 percent in similar macro environments.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Volume
$11,947End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 and the unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent in June, driven by a 264,000 drop in the labor force amid elevated energy prices, renewed tariffs, and geopolitical tensions including conflict in the Middle East. These developments have reinforced trader focus on labor-market softening signals such as subdued hiring, below-consensus wage growth of just 0.1 percent month-over-month, and structural headwinds including AI adoption and demographic shifts. With the August report due September 4, closely matched probabilities for 4.1–4.3 percent reflect uncertainty over whether the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium persists or if seasonal factors and policy volatility produce a modest rebound or further rise, consistent with historical patterns around 4.1–4.3 percent in similar macro environments.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$11,947End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 employment data showed nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 and the unemployment rate easing to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent in June, driven by a 264,000 drop in the labor force amid elevated energy prices, renewed tariffs, and geopolitical tensions including conflict in the Middle East. These developments have reinforced trader focus on labor-market softening signals such as subdued hiring, below-consensus wage growth of just 0.1 percent month-over-month, and structural headwinds including AI adoption and demographic shifts. With the August report due September 4, closely matched probabilities for 4.1–4.3 percent reflect uncertainty over whether the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium persists or if seasonal factors and policy volatility produce a modest rebound or further rise, consistent with historical patterns around 4.1–4.3 percent in similar macro environments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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